MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffaae0c7363920dace8245de32f184e9c7eab20608ce56b45d03a87b0f6caa01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 20,261$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 52c | 10,039$5,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,848.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 50c | 4,337$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 49c | 1,775$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 23c | 1,516$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed New York Mets | 70c | 999.97$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 50c | 866.47$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.26 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 61c | 725.5$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.43 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed New York Mets | 63c | 253.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 230$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 67c | 176$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Mets | 42c | 158.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed New York Mets | 63c | 157$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 141.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 137.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed New York Mets | 63c | 131$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Mets | 48c | 125.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 100.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 53c | 97.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed New York Mets | 29c | 73.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 69.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed New York Mets | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 60.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 55.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 49.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 59c | 47.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed New York Mets | 53c | 42.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Mets | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked New York Mets | 54c | 36.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed New York Mets | 54c | 33.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed New York Mets | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed New York Mets | 53c | 27.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked New York Mets | 63c | 25.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked New York Mets | 54c | 24.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed New York Mets | 54c | 24.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked New York Mets | 54c | 24.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed New York Mets | 55c | 21.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed New York Mets | 67c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.