MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x216c728e6dfb75e8db6e2917b5c6b372d265e324933784e4ac30a0c171477bf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Over | 51c | 49,180$25,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,098.14 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 29,343$14,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,378.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 49c | 20,408$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 9,513$4,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,567.2 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…7dd1backed Over | 36c | 3,085$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.95 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 2,864$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.8 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 2,184$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.53 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,296$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.96 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 39c | 1,200$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.39 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 761.11$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.01 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 61c | 653.84$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 52c | 497.06$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.59 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 487.5$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 412.25$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.73 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 71c | 397$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 62c | 346$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.55 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 51c | 339.99$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.59 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 65c | 285.76$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.91 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 60c | 224.4$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 192.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 139.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…49d6backed Under | 50c | 135.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a83…f2edbacked Under | 50c | 134.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 46c | 121.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 58c | 119.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 115$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 52c | 95.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 43c | 91.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 48c | 82.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Over | 52c | 80.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 79.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 57c | 78.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 53c | 76.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 57c | 71.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 59.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…d5fdbacked Over | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 48c | 47.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 40c | 42.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 42.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 53c | 40.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 67c | 37.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 54c | 36.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…3e6ebacked Over | 42c | 29.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 51c | 28.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 42c | 25.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 51c | 24.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Over | 52c | 22.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 64c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Under | 60c | 17.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Under | 67c | 17.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Over | 78c | 12.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.