MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcaa8e0cad23847fb3406588cffa5e7ba99869162e9e64d58dd55b3d6047a7b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 11,761$4,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,469.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Mets | 62c | 8,854$5,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,369.83 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 58c | 4,350$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 53c | 4,132$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 53c | 2,719$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.93 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 1,623$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.36 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 38c | 1,600$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 1,450$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed San Diego Padres | 12c | 1,353$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 71c | 1,298$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 1,017$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.52 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 1,000$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 813.05$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 576.8$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.49 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 535.21$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.79 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 533.37$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.02 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 507.21$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.05 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 37c | 488.32$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 449.14$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.75 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 428.17$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.83 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 320$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 267.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.39 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 267.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.39 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked New York Mets | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 255.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.39 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 255.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.39 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed New York Mets | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed New York Mets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 163$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 131.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 113.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked New York Mets | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 75c | 95.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed New York Mets | 51c | 76.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…190ebacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 60.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 220 | 64.1%141 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked New York Mets | 51c | 58.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed New York Mets | 54c | 50.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 49.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…9528backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 30.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 29.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked New York Mets | 63c | 26.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 59c | 24.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed New York Mets | 61c | 23.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 22.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked New York Mets | 62c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.