MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6950ab865b40b367c4b6236b4cc68741ec0f915411c485bafc07a389117282a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 22,754$13,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,152.85 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 46c | 12,893$5,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,980.34 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 49c | 4,549$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.17 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 48c | 2,774$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.92 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed New York Mets | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 4cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 1,568$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.17 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 52c | 1,033$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.55 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Mets | 72c | 964$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.92 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Mets | 50c | 800.42$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.43 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 752.52$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.7 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 64c | 716.99$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.23 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 64c | 267$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed San Diego Padres | 24c | 236.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 231.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 282 | 58.5%165 W · 117 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked New York Mets | 52c | 161.54$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed New York Mets | 53c | 123.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 119.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked New York Mets | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 96.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 53c | 95.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed New York Mets | 49c | 81.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed New York Mets | 53c | 78.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked New York Mets | 53c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked New York Mets | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed New York Mets | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets | 59c | 60.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 62c | 58.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 53.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked New York Mets | 56c | 50.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 50.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed New York Mets | 57c | 46.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed New York Mets | 63c | 46.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 45.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed New York Mets | 56c | 40.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 39.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed New York Mets | 51c | 37.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 462 | 51.7%239 W · 223 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed New York Mets | 51c | 33.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed New York Mets | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 456 | 50.4%230 W · 226 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked New York Mets | 55c | 28.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked New York Mets | 72c | 27.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked New York Mets | 54c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Mets | 45c | 26.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked New York Mets | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…bf35backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 25.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed New York Mets | 55c | 23.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed New York Mets | 55c | 23.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked New York Mets | 55c | 23.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked New York Mets | 55c | 23.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed New York Mets | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.