MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x956d63f632463999ac91ca7b40acb5197459569e450ac8966a8ea6b542618698
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 1c | 10,351$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 58c | 3,642$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,105 | 251 | 51.8%130 W · 121 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 2,166$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.78 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 2,159$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.71 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 2,057$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.98 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 1,700$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.99 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 2c | 1,649$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 57c | 1,491$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 59c | 1,200$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.23 | 5,235 | 56.8%2,972 W · 2,263 L | +130.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 834.5$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.17 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 470.63$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.77 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 57c | 377.36$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.69 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 46c | 374.61$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.51 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 57c | 240.35$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 43c | 230.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.3 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 223.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 39c | 115.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 39c | 100.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 41c | 96.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Over | 43c | 91.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 69c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 57c | 59.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 49c | 53.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 48.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 56c | 45.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 396 | 40.7%161 W · 235 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…a024backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 45c | 38.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 2,549 | 45.8%1,168 W · 1,381 L | -75.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 44c | 33.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 47c | 31.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 423 | 40.9%173 W · 250 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +10.2wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Under | 55c | 28.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…543dbacked Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 19.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.