Fifa International · resolved market
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08d6d244f4b0d29e33d1e9bf46163d6e68cad3a89448b552b4a240200f248205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 565.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 34c | 347.44$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.69 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…49d7backed No | 30c | 312.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 34c | 301.35$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.95 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 250$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e14…7c43backed No | 21c | 172.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.97 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…e573backed Yes | 14c | 156.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 70c | 119.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 54c | 104$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 315 | 20.3%64 W · 251 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 47c | 102.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fa…8755backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…41afbacked No | 70c | 95.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…3e28backed No | 34c | 63.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdad5…d1f7backed Yes | 64c | 63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…61d6backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 74c | 52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…a595backed Yes | 66c | 44.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…6ef4backed Yes | 59c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbd…2a3fbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ea…5843backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…18b1backed No | 56c | 38.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…48f8backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…f0f7backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11?this page
- Will Cristian Romero be in Argentina's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Exequiel Palacios be in Argentina's Starting 11?No won
- Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Gerónimo Rulli be in Argentina's Starting 11?No won
- Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11?No won
- Will Gonzalo Montiel be in Argentina's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Juan Musso be in Argentina's Starting 11?No won
- Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Lisandro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11?No won
- Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11?No won
- Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11?No won
- Will Rodrigo De Paul be in Argentina's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Thiago Almada be in Argentina's Starting 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.