CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09283c359156f1115972ad75c882aba23bda868673dd1be4fe28d37463c052a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof FURIA, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6401…f240backed Aurora Gaming | 63c | 5,253$3,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.61 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked FURIA | 37c | 4,646$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.23 | 364 | 53.8%196 W · 168 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed FURIA | 35c | 1,819$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.49 | 371 | 57.7%214 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28d…83bfbacked FURIA | 34c | 1,767$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed FURIA | 35c | 1,634$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.79 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…0965backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 1,360$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…bc19backed FURIA | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 1,118$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.24 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked FURIA | 35c | 1,080$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.86 | 485 | 48.7%236 W · 249 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed FURIA | 41c | 1,033$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 227 | 57.3%130 W · 97 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed Aurora Gaming | 63c | 799.51$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.82 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed FURIA | 36c | 620.47$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.37 | 386 | 50.8%196 W · 190 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…195cbacked FURIA | 34c | 576$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Aurora Gaming | 59c | 566.84$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.4 | 1,396 | 38.9%543 W · 853 L | -41.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 565.05$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.42 | 554 | 41.2%228 W · 326 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 532.99$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.22 | 5,028 | 55%2,763 W · 2,265 L | +112.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Aurora Gaming | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 767 | 48%368 W · 399 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3105…2e7ebacked FURIA | 37c | 459.11$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.87 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c1…f7c4backed Aurora Gaming | 63c | 459.11$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…2d72backed FURIA | 34c | 307$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c4…3212backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 312 | 61.2%191 W · 121 L | +21.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…63fcbacked FURIA | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1,998 | 53.7%1,073 W · 925 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked FURIA | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Aurora Gaming | 63c | 107.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 2,599 | 47.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L | -30.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked FURIA | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f2…1e88backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4223…42c7backed Aurora Gaming | 28c | 83.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Aurora Gaming | 31c | 69.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 1,643 | 32.8%539 W · 1,104 L | -48.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed FURIA | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f24…3a09backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 59.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 58.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcc…77efbacked FURIA | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Aurora Gaming | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Aurora Gaming | 60c | 53.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 721 | 53.7%387 W · 334 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…570bbacked FURIA | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 57.4%89 W · 66 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed FURIA | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 232 | 26.3%61 W · 171 L | -15.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed FURIA | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 220 | 60.9%134 W · 86 L | +16.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed FURIA | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 26.1%46 W · 130 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 237 | 62.9%149 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora Gaming | 78c | 41.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…c2bebacked FURIA | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed FURIA | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 347 | 42.9%149 W · 198 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Aurora Gaming | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,828 | 47.6%871 W · 957 L | -54.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…06c6backed FURIA | 46c | 39.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 37.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 147 | 69.4%102 W · 45 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked FURIA | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 373 | 22.3%83 W · 290 L | -42.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed FURIA | 61c | 33.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 680 | 59.3%403 W · 277 L | +64.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed FURIA | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed FURIA | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 398 | 40.5%161 W · 237 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aurora Gaming | 80c | 30.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,768 | 59.2%1,047 W · 721 L | +105.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Aurora Gaming | 49c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 366 | 39.9%146 W · 220 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 23.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…5addbacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 23.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +11.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Aurora Gaming | 63c | 23.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 20.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,309 | 45.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L | -62.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…7cfdbacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 278 | 38.1%106 W · 172 L | -16.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 160 | 38.1%61 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Aurora Gaming | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 171 | 59.6%102 W · 69 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.