Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x092a8fd1962bd32bfefdcd46fe4fa54b8e5c0003fa59e1348d5128ad465984c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 65c | 1,953$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.26 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 5c | 642.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 71c | 446$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 408.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 63c | 365.17$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 16c | 353.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 7c | 347.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 27c | 295$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…11b5backed No | 35c | 259.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 8c | 242$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 193.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 49c | 154.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 141.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 41c | 131.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 122.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 36c | 120.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 35c | 115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…49c3backed No | 54c | 87.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 71c | 84.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 29c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked No | 24c | 62.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac0…28ebbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 37c | 46.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 57c | 43.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 34c | 42.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 44c | 41.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 77c | 37.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 53c | 26.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 43c | 24.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 76c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.