Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0970d2080134a627796870c94af777a32dc7289ec38545daf11ef050dcb030c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 1,425$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 1,030$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 781.23$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.09 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 31c | 615.04$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.52 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 27c | 564.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 30c | 449.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.49 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 23c | 425.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 422.58$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 412.44$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 36c | 401$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.27 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 398.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…c766backed Yes | 26c | 384.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 27c | 372.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 37c | 345.07$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 333.49$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 67c | 328.17$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 62c | 327.38$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 27c | 293.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 38c | 263.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 256.54$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 218.61$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 215.06$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 207.56$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 73c | 206.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed Yes | 25c | 204.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…0becbacked Yes | 31c | 194.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 178.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 32c | 178$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 172.69$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 167.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 165.43$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 153.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 152.11$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…125dbacked No | 69c | 145.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 32c | 144.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 135$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 134.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 79c | 130.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 29c | 126.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…649abacked Yes | 37c | 125.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 124.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 120.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 37c | 117.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 72c | 117.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 115$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 107.25$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 105.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 105.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 101$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 99.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 31c | 98.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 97.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 67c | 84.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 81.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 29c | 81.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 81.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 76.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 72c | 74.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 34c | 74.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 14c | 71.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 25c | 71.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 69.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1f…5578backed No | 72c | 69.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 34c | 66.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 65.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 63.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fa…aac8backed Yes | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 67c | 57.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 57.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 55.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 49.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 71c | 46.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 46.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 45.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 32c | 42.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 74c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…2412backed No | 61c | 37.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 33c | 35.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.