NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a04cb8cd6d5ed719001598697303e4b1c2eaed741bcd2f9fbf559f6f6679e3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Cavaliers, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nuggets | 46c | 6,632$3,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,583.86 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Cavaliers | 54c | 2,676$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.98 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Cavaliers | 54c | 1,721$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.24 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Cavaliers | 54c | 1,659$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Cavaliers | 52c | 1,538$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.63 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Cavaliers | 54c | 1,296$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 50c | 1,239$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc5…b639backed Cavaliers | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.77 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Nuggets | 45c | 735$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.25 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Cavaliers | 17c | 451.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Nuggets | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 358.88$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.97 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Cavaliers | 9c | 250.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Cavaliers | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Nuggets | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Nuggets | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Cavaliers | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cavaliers | 53c | 108.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Cavaliers | 56c | 101.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed Nuggets | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Nuggets | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Nuggets | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Nuggets | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Nuggets | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Nuggets | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Nuggets | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Cavaliers | 54c | 58.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Nuggets | 46c | 58.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Nuggets | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Nuggets | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Nuggets | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -12.3wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Cavaliers | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 380 | 50.8%193 W · 187 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cavaliers | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Cavaliers | 55c | 41.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Nuggets | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Nuggets | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Cavaliers | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Nuggets | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Nuggets | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Nuggets | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Nuggets | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nuggets | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Nuggets | 43c | 27.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nuggets | 44c | 24.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 52c | 24.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Nuggets | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Cavaliers | 53c | 24.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Cavaliers | 44c | 24.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Nuggets | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 52c | 22.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Cavaliers | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…1a0dbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.