NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1a5be30fe38dc8f24863dedc4efd8514a3d339d66873f57af340a969426370a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Cavaliers, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 40c | 7,776$3,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,662.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Cavaliers | 60c | 7,652$4,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,590.96 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 44c | 4,595$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets | 54c | 2,865$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.46 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers | 45c | 2,627$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.53 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Cavaliers | 56c | 2,239$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.86 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Cavaliers | 55c | 1,946$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.73 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 1,900$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.99 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed Nuggets | 53c | 1,888$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.96 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a09…3c83backed Cavaliers | 60c | 1,825$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 47c | 1,811$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.34 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Cavaliers | 60c | 1,110$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Cavaliers | 6c | 927.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…e89abacked Cavaliers | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Cavaliers | 59c | 506.76$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.96 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Nuggets | 42c | 502.98$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.73 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Cavaliers | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Nuggets | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets | 41c | 427.49$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.22 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets | 42c | 400.67$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.39 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Cavaliers | 59c | 305.08$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e4…0641backed Cavaliers | 61c | 300.05$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Cavaliers | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Cavaliers | 57c | 254.39$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Cavaliers | 61c | 239.39$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Nuggets | 67c | 186$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Cavaliers | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Cavaliers | 59c | 168.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Cavaliers | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Nuggets | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Nuggets | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Cavaliers | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 39c | 93.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Cavaliers | 59c | 86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…b5f6backed Nuggets | 53c | 75.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Cavaliers | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Cavaliers | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…2540backed Cavaliers | 60c | 64.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Cavaliers | 47c | 59.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Cavaliers | 58c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Nuggets | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 56c | 47.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Cavaliers | 59c | 47.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cavaliers | 33c | 41.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Cavaliers | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Nuggets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0daa…f8d7backed Nuggets | 42c | 34.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…31c1backed Cavaliers | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f71…b80ebacked Nuggets | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…0e37backed Nuggets | 43c | 29.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.