NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec3997433ffea97f624a66e18d616239c7a6907c20ab6a29da854264295e6b18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 16,411$8,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,210.03 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 50c | 11,250$5,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,625 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Over | 50c | 10,032$5,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,016 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 4,862$2,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,452.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 4,625$2,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,342.26 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 50c | 2,030$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 1,430$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.52 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 1,164$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 999.7$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.85 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 786$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 117.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 115.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Under | 50c | 95.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 94.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 64.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde2d…abbabacked Under | 49c | 59.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…7f4cbacked Under | 56c | 25.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 49c | 23.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.