NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86e7ade726fd13966a224e2dd7f68aaa1f20e6657126775fbd3e82647220bf12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Cavaliers, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Cavaliers | 48c | 11,755$5,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,584.08 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 53c | 5,768$3,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,739.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nuggets | 53c | 4,283$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,013.05 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 51c | 1,519$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.56 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Nuggets | 54c | 689.15$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.01 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Nuggets | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Nuggets | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 282 | 45.4%128 W · 154 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 203.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cavaliers | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 54c | 175$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Nuggets | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cavaliers | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets | 72c | 79.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers | 46c | 62.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Cavaliers | 46c | 56.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Cavaliers | 46c | 51.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Nuggets | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked Nuggets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Nuggets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Nuggets | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.