NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x813c2912e77ba16e4ca3eb8fa4b179cae73beeb1e585b227a2610ccb411d0540
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 61,416$30,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,690.36 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 21,564$11,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,350.71 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Over | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 53c | 10,000$5,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,649.99 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 47c | 8,924$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d9…65d0backed Over | 47c | 7,463$3,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,488.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Over | 50c | 5,880$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…a744backed Under | 54c | 5,825$3,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.24 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 2,798$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.08 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 53c | 2,711$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.28 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 2,594$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…2cdfbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.95 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.95 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…41afbacked Over | 47c | 1,787$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 48c | 1,355$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.4 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 48c | 1,146$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…d765backed Over | 49c | 922.62$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 44c | 883.82$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.58 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 56c | 835.16$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.69 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 761.89$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.82 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Under | 49c | 689.74$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.77 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 48c | 562.3$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.9 | 277 | 35%97 W · 180 L | -30.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 543.53$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 48c | 417$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.16 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Over | 49c | 410.16$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.98 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 280.59$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 209.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 51c | 192.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 189.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Over | 54c | 165.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 111.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 53c | 94.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Under | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…ff92backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ef…fa7bbacked Under | 52c | 60.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 48c | 60.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…4085backed Under | 53c | 56.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…cb14backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297d…0358backed Over | 48c | 49.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 47.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0a…7d46backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…0899backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4546…c148backed Over | 53c | 34.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 32.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9229…830bbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Over | 53c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Under | 53c | 20.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.