TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Global Esportsof Global Esports, Nongshim RedForce
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$180,319
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,319 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Global Esports43c19,400$8,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,99678162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Nongshim RedForce7c11,346$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3f…75cfbacked Nongshim RedForce59c10,135$5,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,978.2213651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Nongshim RedForce57c7,798$4,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,452.281338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Nongshim RedForce42c5,717$2,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,374.311637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Global Esports62c5,289$3,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,987.110863%68 W · 40 L+15.4wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Nongshim RedForce43c3,756$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.681,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x594d…059dbacked Nongshim RedForce53c2,764$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Global Esports43c2,585$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.0319655.6%109 W · 87 L+12.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Global Esports42c2,246$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.5833942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Global Esports78c2,005$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.7188844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Global Esports51c1,969$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.22860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Nongshim RedForce67c1,947$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.3119648.5%95 W · 101 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Global Esports43c1,627$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.1341537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d63…aea3backed Global Esports28c1,500$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Nongshim RedForce58c1,478$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.8714750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed Global Esports74c1,472$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.662466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Nongshim RedForce69c1,469$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.912231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Global Esports45c1,378$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.977234.7%25 W · 47 L-11.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Nongshim RedForce52c1,322$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.8545250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Nongshim RedForce67c1,239$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.0842540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Global Esports47c1,227$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.919371%66 W · 27 L+15.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+27.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3612…177ebacked Nongshim RedForce60c1,159$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Global Esports41c1,150$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.3860154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Nongshim RedForce61c1,139$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.495160.8%31 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82af…f7d1backed Global Esports43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Global Esports42c1,000$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58524846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Global Esports45c908$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.411854.2%64 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Nongshim RedForce43c821.64$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.2410238.2%39 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Global Esports54c804.08$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.6154342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Nongshim RedForce52c800$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4141926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked Nongshim RedForce52c800$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4144839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Nongshim RedForce52c800$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41413035.4%46 W · 84 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Nongshim RedForce52c800$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4144032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Global Esports41c776.95$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.719644.8%43 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked Global Esports43c734.7$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.2213044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Nongshim RedForce52c722.24$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.6126634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Nongshim RedForce43c694.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.547433.8%25 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Nongshim RedForce55c654.68$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.122128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-45.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Nongshim RedForce52c650.43$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.4115833.5%53 W · 105 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Nongshim RedForce56c600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33619656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Nongshim RedForce56c597.86$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.5725453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed Nongshim RedForce54c535.87$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.3713345.9%61 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e5…8ce3backed Nongshim RedForce30c532.09$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1574341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x049a…6185backed Global Esports77c508.05$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a8…5434backed Global Esports50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Nongshim RedForce50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018143.6%79 W · 102 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Global Esports42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2904926.5%13 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x20c7…2027backed Global Esports43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Nongshim RedForce53c499.99$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Nongshim RedForce58c499.95$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.975149%25 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Global Esports43c493.01$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.023151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Global Esports41c489.81$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.5823151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Nongshim RedForce26c486.83$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.584637%17 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Nongshim RedForce62c449.86$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.7640944.3%181 W · 228 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Global Esports31c449.39$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.291,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Nongshim RedForce58c422.75$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.197445.9%34 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Global Esports63c417.47$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9235142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ae…3e6cbacked Nongshim RedForce52c400$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2073336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Nongshim RedForce52c400$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20712243.4%53 W · 69 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Global Esports44c394.55$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.957342.5%31 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44e9…ec97backed Nongshim RedForce54c370.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc304…4e30backed Global Esports55c352.24$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.48825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-54.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Nongshim RedForce58c344.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20062856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Nongshim RedForce63c337.77$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.1230835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6aa4…236cbacked Nongshim RedForce59c333.19$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5810951.4%56 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Nongshim RedForce59c330.33$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19511564.3%74 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Global Esports46c325.35$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.356357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nongshim RedForce49c324$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.761,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Global Esports48c319.65$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.453355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Global Esports36c311.56$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.014045%18 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Nongshim RedForce56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16886747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aae…0da3backed Nongshim RedForce57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1711241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88db…54a4backed Global Esports47c289.36$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.361947.4%9 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcbf…051bbacked Global Esports36c278.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+94.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Nongshim RedForce45c263.1$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7126932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Nongshim RedForce30c259.06$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3318647.8%89 W · 97 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Nongshim RedForce48c251.78$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7814729.9%44 W · 103 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Global Esports73c250$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.56672.7%48 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Nongshim RedForce56c249.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9924457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Global Esports23c249$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.754742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa943…bcbebacked Nongshim RedForce59c242.41$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Nongshim RedForce50c231$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4213336.8%49 W · 84 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Nongshim RedForce50c231$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4212633.3%42 W · 84 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Nongshim RedForce50c231$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4214436.1%52 W · 92 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Global Esports44c218.18$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1815843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfe9…4a83backed Nongshim RedForce37c217.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803125.8%8 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-38.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1df4…0540backed Nongshim RedForce51c214.94$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.622157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd8…1faabacked Nongshim RedForce59c212.46$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Nongshim RedForce53c211.83$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2819847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a6…f48bbacked Nongshim RedForce49c207.19$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.144257.1%24 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Nongshim RedForce48c206.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010460.6%63 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa47c…9099backed Nongshim RedForce25c205.05$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Nongshim RedForce30c202$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.825831%18 W · 40 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Nongshim RedForce56c197.94$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.822441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Nongshim RedForce49c191$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.597533.3%25 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Nongshim RedForce51c188.58$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5325752.1%134 W · 123 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Global Esports45c182$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2514252.8%75 W · 67 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed Global Esports44c177.92$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.644729.8%14 W · 33 L-7.1wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-42.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf7dd…12f0backed Global Esports46c174.49$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.498043.8%35 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.