CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: FURIA vs. Astralis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b3c19a20c605a2c828b7dbb362e94f93cb28ce11a9e9b30230dbbd71d2dbde9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIAof FURIA, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf557…18debacked Astralis | 55c | 29,526$16,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,178.62 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked FURIA | 47c | 13,074$6,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,949.31 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed FURIA | 42c | 8,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,640 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed FURIA | 46c | 4,869$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,637.38 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA | 48c | 4,862$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,538.77 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Astralis | 52c | 4,857$2,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,516.32 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…8169backed Astralis | 58c | 2,064$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.86 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed FURIA | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked FURIA | 48c | 1,725$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.99 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Astralis | 54c | 1,294$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.99 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed FURIA | 44c | 1,206$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.39 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked FURIA | 65c | 1,200$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.35 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed Astralis | 10c | 1,200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed FURIA | 46c | 999.97$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.98 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked FURIA | 78c | 650.04$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.04 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Astralis | 36c | 649.98$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.49 | 446 | 48.4%216 W · 230 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed FURIA | 61c | 628.16$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.36 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed FURIA | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Astralis | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed FURIA | 47c | 529.79$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.79 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Astralis | 57c | 502.02$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.1 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed FURIA | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked FURIA | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked FURIA | 42c | 400$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked Astralis | 54c | 371.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed FURIA | 44c | 347.73$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.73 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed FURIA | 47c | 319.34$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked FURIA | 58c | 310.33$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked FURIA | 49c | 287.3$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Astralis | 38c | 263.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed FURIA | 47c | 260$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b0…4f5cbacked FURIA | 44c | 252.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.27 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Astralis | 57c | 243.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed FURIA | 75c | 232.34$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Astralis | 32c | 232.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…c033backed FURIA | 76c | 216.88$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaccc…67fdbacked Astralis | 54c | 201.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed Astralis | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Astralis | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…7a8bbacked Astralis | 54c | 188.59$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Astralis | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Astralis | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf0…562abacked FURIA | 65c | 172.8$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 55c | 170.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed FURIA | 51c | 154.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked FURIA | 47c | 153.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed FURIA | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed FURIA | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked FURIA | 63c | 140.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Astralis | 46c | 104.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked FURIA | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed FURIA | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed Astralis | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 233 | 51.5%120 W · 113 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed FURIA | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed FURIA | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3f…d2e2backed FURIA | 75c | 86.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked FURIA | 47c | 82.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed FURIA | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Astralis | 23c | 79.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…2444backed Astralis | 42c | 70.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…7eebbacked FURIA | 74c | 65.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Astralis | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Astralis | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…e4f4backed FURIA | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked Astralis | 57c | 52.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Astralis | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Astralis | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Astralis | 35c | 48.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…9d63backed Astralis | 54c | 47.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked FURIA | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed FURIA | 46c | 43.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Astralis | 41c | 40.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked FURIA | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…8c88backed FURIA | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed FURIA | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.