Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp - Map 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b40b731bcaa1c75c98db8f5a957a1fb2a86ddea233c9ad550dcd1ff7a18317f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fnaticof Fnatic, Karmine Corp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked Fnatic | 64c | 9,348$5,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,365.42 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Fnatic | 75c | 5,661$4,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.82 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Karmine Corp | 36c | 4,658$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.6 | 287 | 47.4%136 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Karmine Corp | 1c | 2,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Karmine Corp | 26c | 1,065$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.48 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed Karmine Corp | 33c | 941$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.45 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…7367backed Karmine Corp | 36c | 900$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Karmine Corp | 31c | 829.81$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.24 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Karmine Corp | 30c | 814.66$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.82 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Karmine Corp | 36c | 714.72$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.3 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Karmine Corp | 33c | 682.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 563 | 57.9%326 W · 237 L | +36.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Karmine Corp | 35c | 600.14$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.41 | 533 | 55.3%295 W · 238 L | +24.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Karmine Corp | 37c | 595.67$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.57 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…9f91backed Karmine Corp | 25c | 513.88$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 600 | 22.7%136 W · 464 L | -26.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Fnatic | 68c | 479.93$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.18 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe454…8b7dbacked Fnatic | 72c | 425.11$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…e14cbacked Fnatic | 63c | 413.06$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.83 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Fnatic | 64c | 329.93$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 321 | 41.7%134 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…5bb7backed Karmine Corp | 31c | 310$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Karmine Corp | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked Karmine Corp | 36c | 253.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Karmine Corp | 36c | 245$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | +15.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Karmine Corp | 26c | 237.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57d…07bfbacked Karmine Corp | 35c | 228.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 145 | 34.5%50 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…5504backed Fnatic | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Fnatic | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Karmine Corp | 37c | 147.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b60…5c4ebacked Karmine Corp | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…abf3backed Karmine Corp | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…436cbacked Fnatic | 78c | 72.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…be66backed Karmine Corp | 39c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ae…b929backed Karmine Corp | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…f88bbacked Karmine Corp | 34c | 59.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…0b0dbacked Fnatic | 79c | 57.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 184 | 57.1%105 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…0fddbacked Karmine Corp | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…47ecbacked Fnatic | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe185…7ea2backed Karmine Corp | 36c | 43.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Karmine Corp | 34c | 39.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 409 | 44.3%181 W · 228 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Fnatic | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…cc8abacked Fnatic | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Fnatic | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Fnatic | 66c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp - Map 3 Winnerthis page
- Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)Karmine Corp won
- Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2Karmine Corp won
- Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp - Map 1 WinnerKarmine Corp won
- Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 WinnerKarmine Corp won
- Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp - Map 4 WinnerFnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.