TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc5df…be66

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Dota2, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 55 out of 100; worst Valorant at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT4042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskovabacked Linda Noskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$3,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,833.36
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegulabacked Aryna Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,889Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,889.04
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkovabacked Karolina Pliskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,814Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,814.2
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbertbacked Hamad Medjedovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,977Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,976.59
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritzbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.6
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Leheckabacked Rinky Hijikata · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,717Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+150.4%+$2,582.99
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Belluccibacked Raphael Collignon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$243.77
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Sotobacked Matias Soto · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$530
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Krausbacked Sinja Kraus · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$826Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$826
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajalbacked Mark Lajal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,014Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+53.9%+$1,085.95
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanovabacked Hernan Casanova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.45
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmezbacked Anastasia Potapova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,590Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,590
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublevbacked Andrey Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$3,182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,182
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,908Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+72%+$2,092.5
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverevbacked Jesper de Jong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.04
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatekbacked Marta Kostyuk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$884Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$2,516
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashimabacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$648Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$648
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignonbacked Matteo Arnaldi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,188Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+203%+$2,412
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapovabacked Anastasia Potapova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,368Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$1,032
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paulbacked Casper Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$6,193Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$3,107.09
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtsevabacked Xiyu Wang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,007Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$518.5
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Matteo Arnaldi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,393Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+195.7%+$2,726.65
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakovabacked Katerina Siniakova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$494Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$493.93
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapovabacked Katie Boulter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$888Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$887.79
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouamebacked Adolfo Vallejo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,405Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,405.25
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+249.1%+$382.8
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 2 Winnerbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+68.5%+$49.35
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.5
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs MANA eSports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Group Abacked MANA eSports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.64
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Group Stagebacked Ursa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$71.24
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffsbacked Betclic Apogee Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$333.2
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Group Dbacked Lilmix · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.11
Counter-Strike: OG vs Metizport (BO1) - BC Game Masters Championship Group Bbacked Metizport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.92
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 1WIN (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsbacked 1WIN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$30.87
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs TDK - Map 2 Winnerbacked Nemiga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$4,289Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+48.4%+$2,074.62
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs TDK - Map 1 Winnerbacked Nemiga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$213.95
All 11 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$23.32
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$109.04
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked RED Canids · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.28
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+47.4%+$40.2
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.65
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.8
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.12
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2backed Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,052Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,052
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.22
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+49.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+525%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,485Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,485
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$610Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$7,019.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wingsbacked Dallas Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,231Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$1,068.55
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Skybacked Chicago Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,236Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,236
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,094Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$2,531.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,650Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+150%+$2,475
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharksbacked Shanghai Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$808Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$516.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Championships: Latvia vs. Austriabacked Austria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$32.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,708Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$767.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$114
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.