TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ursaof Ursa, ASTRAL
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ASTRAL50c7,232$3,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,632.785,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ASTRAL51c5,592$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.72,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Ursa66c4,180$2,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.292456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x824f…69bdbacked ASTRAL53c2,517$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.034148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x369f…abb5backed Ursa49c2,078$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.333748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Ursa45c1,843$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.552,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed ASTRAL49c1,451$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.6578043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed ASTRAL53c1,344$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.662,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Ursa53c1,280$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.3266446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb04f…c3a4backed Ursa51c1,200$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5941723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.27per pick51cpaid-59.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ASTRAL53c1,149$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.934,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Ursa51c1,137$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.252,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ASTRAL50c1,010$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Ursa50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50019543.6%85 W · 110 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Ursa53c994.99$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.6255843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb66…c8dfbacked Ursa48c889$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.288445.2%38 W · 46 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa113…284ebacked Ursa65c788.4$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.8820935.4%74 W · 135 L-21.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Ursa79c766.81$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2166436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed ASTRAL59c745$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.824551.8%127 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb538…7a1ebacked Ursa74c707.07$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.841283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Ursa47c700$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37128943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed ASTRAL54c700$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.2164058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0284…97f6backed ASTRAL59c671.79$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.645251.9%27 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed Ursa45c664.14$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.8938835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b50…1db2backed Ursa47c651.04$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.055950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Ursa50c645.38$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.3817948%86 W · 93 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97c…ca21backed Ursa47c638.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.3862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+33%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked ASTRAL26c612.33$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0816355.8%91 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Ursa47c593.81$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.3238848.5%188 W · 200 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa83f…b857backed Ursa42c589.74$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.712749.6%63 W · 64 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Ursa45c577.68$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.6823072.6%167 W · 63 L+27.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Ursa50c540$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27023952.3%125 W · 114 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Ursa50c520$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26021945.7%100 W · 119 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed ASTRAL50c446.13$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.0626650.8%135 W · 131 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Ursa48c419.98$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.395,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked ASTRAL69c418.35$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.574837.5%18 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ASTRAL51c404.19$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.683,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Ursa12c399.74$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.7716051.3%82 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Ursa52c398.76$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.352,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Ursa79c325.43$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0339946.4%185 W · 214 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ASTRAL50c312$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.532,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ASTRAL54c311.5$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.285,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Ursa50c311.18$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4835839.4%141 W · 217 L+1.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed ASTRAL17c300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041436.7%152 W · 262 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb897…e44ebacked ASTRAL34c298.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014939.6%59 W · 90 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Ursa50c298$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14959343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Ursa51c294.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.124953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Ursa49c291.88$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.8648240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed Ursa51c290.2$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.222044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed ASTRAL49c279.22$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8226054.2%141 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f56…b78ebacked ASTRAL56c276.21$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.654447.7%21 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa46c267.64$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.986,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Ursa47c264.48$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1722645.1%102 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed ASTRAL4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102150.9%2 W · 213 L-1.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Ursa48c235.72$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.911,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35f0…971ebacked Ursa44c230.48$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7731647.8%151 W · 165 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Ursa52c225$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10814953.7%80 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Ursa50c208.8$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.764,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Ursa48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3317758.2%103 W · 74 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Ursa50c200$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10157641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Ursa52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9680740.3%325 W · 482 L-3.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked ASTRAL26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5221741%89 W · 128 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb575…d35bbacked Ursa59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8210938.5%42 W · 67 L-0.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1169…900ebacked Ursa49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+72.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x285b…df1ebacked Ursa40c196.67$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3715247.4%72 W · 80 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9e…cca3backed Ursa51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.083655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Ursa51c194.17$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1421752.5%114 W · 103 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Ursa55c188.78$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.541,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7edd…c57fbacked ASTRAL53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-44.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6d0…85e6backed Ursa42c188.04$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.141675%12 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+49%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed ASTRAL52c180.49$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9338552.7%203 W · 182 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Ursa51c174.51$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5154543.5%237 W · 308 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d4…c512backed ASTRAL55c167.82$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.636232.3%20 W · 42 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Ursa53c165.47$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2791743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Ursa43c163.29$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.091,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc056…e188backed ASTRAL62c161.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008751.7%45 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5147…f078backed ASTRAL44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.318645.3%39 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed ASTRAL50c140.64$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3283856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked Ursa65c139.92$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.651,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Ursa39c138.49$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.42,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc5df…be66backed Ursa48c137$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.241154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Ursa47c136.17$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1728052.9%148 W · 132 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed ASTRAL31c132.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0457322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f7a…719bbacked Ursa48c131.02$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Ursa44c126.65$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3926246.9%123 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb30e…5ecebacked Ursa49c122$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.223756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66da…69b0backed Ursa16c120$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.428042.5%119 W · 161 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc486…e7e2backed Ursa23c106.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.891612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x347d…098abacked ASTRAL64c106.38$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.324468.2%30 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed ASTRAL52c105$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.674054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…fcdabacked ASTRAL54c102.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.456056.7%34 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed ASTRAL26c101.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5118432.6%60 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed ASTRAL26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2636845.9%169 W · 199 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aae…0da3backed Ursa50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5014255.6%79 W · 63 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Ursa11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8e…08f9backed ASTRAL52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5237050.5%187 W · 183 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Ursa51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4937339.7%148 W · 225 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed ASTRAL26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2633241.6%138 W · 194 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Ursa48c99.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9936057.5%207 W · 153 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Ursa48c98.43$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9867750.2%340 W · 337 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.