Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c723d687ae69009cc01d605d47b3b937a150091a97af3b7dab97a603cc3c262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mbokoof Mboko, Fernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Fernandez | 61c | 20,000$12,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,200 | 270 | 63.7%172 W · 98 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Mboko | 39c | 12,090$4,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,374.95 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Mboko | 39c | 8,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,880 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mboko | 46c | 4,379$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,376.89 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Fernandez | 45c | 3,937$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,784.33 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed Fernandez | 65c | 2,703$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.24 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Fernandez | 59c | 2,637$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.28 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Mboko | 29c | 2,248$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.56 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48d…5182backed Mboko | 40c | 1,988$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.8 | 245 | 58.8%144 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mboko | 40c | 1,968$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.94 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…770cbacked Mboko | 64c | 1,565$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Mboko | 17c | 1,400$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fernandez | 17c | 1,156$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Fernandez | 48c | 1,142$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.05 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Mboko | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Mboko | 52c | 961.73$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.73 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Fernandez | 14c | 732.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mboko | 53c | 721.64$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.93 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Fernandez | 64c | 718.75$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb0…acf5backed Mboko | 31c | 665.57$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mboko | 37c | 658.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.17 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…e271backed Mboko | 38c | 547.46$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.6 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Fernandez | 62c | 530$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.6 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Mboko | 36c | 497.75$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.56 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Mboko | 41c | 488.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.98 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Mboko | 23c | 413.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.26 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…ba65backed Mboko | 52c | 347.94$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Fernandez | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Mboko | 14c | 342.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.86 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Fernandez | 48c | 312.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…9117backed Fernandez | 11c | 283.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Fernandez | 39c | 273.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Fernandez | 48c | 234.09$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Mboko | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce3…3bc3backed Mboko | 21c | 205.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Fernandez | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fernandez | 62c | 174.83$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Fernandez | 68c | 147.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…a8c1backed Mboko | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Fernandez | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Mboko | 55c | 125$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Fernandez | 60c | 122.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Mboko | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…280ebacked Fernandez | 29c | 100.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Fernandez | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked Mboko | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c22…a7babacked Fernandez | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Mboko | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Fernandez | 46c | 90.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Mboko | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…3b6bbacked Fernandez | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Mboko | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3f…a6bfbacked Fernandez | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Mboko | 49c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Fernandez | 61c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 692 | 49.6%343 W · 349 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Fernandez | 63c | 54.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Mboko | 36c | 51.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Mboko | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf72…a19fbacked Mboko | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Fernandez | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…b2e2backed Mboko | 45c | 47.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Fernandez | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Fernandez | 46c | 44.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…16bcbacked Fernandez | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…0aeebacked Fernandez | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Mboko | 50c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 52 | 75%39 W · 13 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Fernandez | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…45bcbacked Mboko | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.