Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ajax win on 2025-02-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ca44dc13aded232991282fa315f0c82c57ecf9b3a2df5b71ad92239c5c6e266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 48c | 13,635$6,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,089.94 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…7724backed Yes | 49c | 12,702$6,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,228.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 52c | 9,869$5,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,765.94 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 50c | 4,841$2,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412.08 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 53c | 4,341$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.02 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 52c | 3,865$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -61%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 60c | 3,727$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.82 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…68a8backed Yes | 50c | 2,808$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 51c | 2,781$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.3 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…6a2abacked Yes | 48c | 1,809$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,689$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…0578backed No | 55c | 899.99$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 41c | 848.74$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.26 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…2d67backed Yes | 44c | 709.93$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 699.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 15c | 601.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…64adbacked Yes | 45c | 329.42$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 5c | 311.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bf…c049backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 58c | 220$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…df5ebacked Yes | 56c | 191.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked No | 80c | 121.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b7…9ccfbacked Yes | 45c | 112.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…a6b7backed Yes | 27c | 88.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…b5d1backed Yes | 16c | 77.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed No | 58c | 56.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Yes | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…97acbacked Yes | 50c | 50.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d71…fdd0backed Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…aa94backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…ceb0backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…2e4dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 53c | 42.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…89b7backed Yes | 51c | 39.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0bc1backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f10…bf5abacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 42c | 31.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ajax win on 2025-02-20?this page
- Will Ajax vs. Union St. Gilloise end in a draw?No won
- Will Union St. Gilloise win on 2025-02-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.