Fifa International · resolved market
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cf6a95c267808859f09725acb42278bf84f80d4c907bcb6468db34256f8bf98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec44…c92bbacked Yes | 6c | 41,300$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,679.03 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbac…f935backed Yes | 7c | 2,182$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…fd26backed Yes | 6c | 1,619$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5796…9b4bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,483$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,311$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 994.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 976.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 10c | 457.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6686…5fa5backed Yes | 8c | 453.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…9722backed No | 71c | 415.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…3f39backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 385.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked No | 63c | 347.63$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 138 | 55.1%76 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…6f5bbacked Yes | 30c | 341.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 14c | 337$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 361 | 23.5%85 W · 276 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…d602backed Yes | 6c | 318.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 6c | 300.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 5c | 294.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 36c | 244.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…90f9backed Yes | 7c | 227.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 6c | 226.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…55a0backed Yes | 6c | 209.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 195.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…f7c3backed Yes | 6c | 176$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 37c | 141.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9559…4913backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…cf40backed Yes | 8c | 133.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 14c | 101.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked Yes | 35c | 93.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 133 | 45.1%60 W · 73 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed No | 71c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…5f47backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 277 | 29.2%81 W · 196 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…b650backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…b7f1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.