CS2 · resolved market
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d2a7722a6619d969089351f017f43e8772876d0590137d0d314c8260bd8d921
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79ea…f900backed No | 36c | 1,007$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…9794backed No | 7c | 971.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Yes | 74c | 940.76$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 40c | 379.39$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.81 | 153 | 20.9%32 W · 121 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 38c | 364.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.05 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…3cd3backed No | 34c | 359.23$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 64c | 228.81$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 41c | 213.41$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.91 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 192.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 160 | 23.8%38 W · 122 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…092bbacked Yes | 23c | 150.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…39e6backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 46c | 147.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 380 | 49.5%188 W · 192 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 126$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 35c | 109.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 103.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 46c | 103$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 61.6%90 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked No | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 58c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…f2b0backed Yes | 54c | 53.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 41c | 52.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 46c | 50.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…d82abacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…cd4ebacked No | 52c | 45.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…d073backed Yes | 31c | 41.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +220.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…35c6backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 55c | 31.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.