TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,931
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,931 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes2c1,579$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.091,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes3c1,250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3315717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c632.18$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.733,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82e7…f552backed No77c550.97$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.7235441%145 W · 209 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8261…d341backed No80c416.79$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.681872.2%13 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes14c378.61$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0145130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes17c373.81$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes5c371$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.469741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes20c360.97$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes18c327$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c322.02$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.931,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c305.06$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes14c284.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.55,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes39c275.53$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0315131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c256.45$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.171,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes30c243.75$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6167…8533backed Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes16c196$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.161,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes15c194.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.825,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No80c183.95$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.931,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No78c181.45$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.651,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No78c156.57$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.012,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes15c152.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.088337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes11c148.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.626336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No75c147.57$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.927079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes17c139.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.191,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1805…a069backed Yes17c137.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.082231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes10c136.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.952,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83bd…a2a0backed Yes18c130.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.063713.5%5 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd10…7544backed No78c127.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.813548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed No79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5811663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1512…079bbacked No79c125.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.833070%21 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+30.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3016…54e9backed Yes19c122.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4713614.7%20 W · 116 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes43c121$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3345148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes19c119$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.031,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes15c113.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5876924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes13c110$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0496313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No76c108.3$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.861,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes18c105.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.35,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes24c105$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5460739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1464…3fb7backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113020%6 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe442…1e49backed Yes13c93.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.052737%10 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fc…d364backed Yes22c92.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes22c89.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e2…a783backed Yes15c87.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.055042%21 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…d3edbacked Yes24c85.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes45c85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2518337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No79c83.93$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.991,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes37c80.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3027421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe39e…8f14backed Yes13c80$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c75.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.037,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No77c73.78$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9712564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes24c72.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes59c71.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6724141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b3a…9096backed Yes16c67.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112445.8%11 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe95d…7b6dbacked Yes23c65.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No72c64.62$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9680957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked No79c63.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.249458.5%55 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No78c62$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed No77c60.4$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8722350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.932,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes21c54.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2845236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No73c53$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3127669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes48c52.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0418035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes19c52.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe09b…0a70backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1072837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1871649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b81…cdc0backed Yes24c46.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc245…bccbbacked Yes66c45.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.381346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick66cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes39c44.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes41c44.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.288134.6%28 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2733…5ae8backed Yes23c43.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105733.3%19 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No77c43.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8848149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No73c43.07$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.62,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes39c42.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.722,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes28c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7694919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d65…2d2bbacked Yes46c41.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.13548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.213167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.071,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes31c38.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No72c36.49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1988650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c35.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.329,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29bc…e100backed No76c35.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.712458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No59c29.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.152,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No75c26.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.762,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed No77c26.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9617443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No71c25.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3421272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.254,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.832,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.891,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No72c22.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.351,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No79c19.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1310857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb5…0200backed No78c19.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.233661.1%22 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff4e…c843backed No79c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42190.5%19 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick73cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No76c17.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.275158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.