TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,198
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,198 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes3c3,310$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9836930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes3c1,585$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0496015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes2c1,351$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5168338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes26c919.52$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.3233929.5%100 W · 239 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e71…afe6backed Yes11c878.22$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5827226.5%72 W · 200 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Yes10c799.98$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8116126.1%42 W · 119 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes3c774.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9532440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes4c728.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8547423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No76c539.56$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.884,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes40c462.75$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.221,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes11c462.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.622,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes6c459.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3934922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes4c443.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.761,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c376$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.664,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes12c327.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.161,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No73c324$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.222,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes29c307.53$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1857150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd48…1e93backed Yes33c303.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c288$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.254,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb99b…b581backed Yes27c270$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.910439.4%41 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed Yes21c249.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4926025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes24c249$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7972042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c244.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes25c242.4$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604427.3%12 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No72c218.54$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.864,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce67…5c3abacked Yes13c200.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.267623.7%18 W · 58 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x242d…6119backed No74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22130%0 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes30c180$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c176$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.355,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes15c169.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0938830.2%117 W · 271 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25e5…96bdbacked No63c158.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.016653%35 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb335…aac1backed Yes13c153.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209538.9%37 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes18c133.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5269520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No66c130.54$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes25c121.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0715529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes13c120$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c118.38$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.73,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No60c116$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.41,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Yes26c114.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8715534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2956543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2456921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90b6…1d6bbacked Yes15c88.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No66c88.32$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.14,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No70c79.67$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.671,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa087…91f7backed Yes25c62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.517635.2%62 W · 114 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdef9…964cbacked Yes21c61.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.928716.1%14 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No71c61.09$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.453,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.216453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes25c59.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511624.1%28 W · 88 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes24c58.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.971,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes38c56.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.722138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No65c51.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1652758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes25c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.444536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No74c49$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7535063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c48.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.419,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.972,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5024…3007backed No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.226948.3%130 W · 139 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+68.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.254253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.615345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes33c39.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.211330.1%34 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No75c39.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.94,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c41…8f2cbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.783,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No73c27.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.622,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d08…54c9backed No63c26.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.938356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No70c24.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.381,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No73c20.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.511,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.655261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…fc0fbacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62181%17 W · 4 L+4.8wins+0.23per pick58cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.132,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2525560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No66c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.493,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed No75c18.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6716065.6%105 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.183,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No68c17.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6468867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No75c17.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.251,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd4…81dcbacked No69c14.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.52680.8%21 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.