Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04059f75b5e836a96a8624166bef8c97f0ca4a3e2cd33813547f82aea177ccbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 52c | 2,516$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.24 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked No | 38c | 1,399$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.73 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,313$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.82 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed No | 42c | 1,287$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.13 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 1,158$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 1,154$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 52c | 1,138$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.27 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 1,105$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 13c | 1,046$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.59 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 39c | 1,003$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 22c | 985.2$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.29 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed No | 75c | 920$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.92 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…38adbacked Yes | 75c | 843.74$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 49c | 793.65$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.44 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 767.06$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 51c | 730.69$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.21 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 704$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.64 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…b9a1backed Yes | 26c | 630.41$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 629.69$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.17 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 39c | 614.22$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.78 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 10c | 600$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 24c | 581.64$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.41 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 568.12$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 4c | 535.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 20c | 533.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 49c | 488.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.74 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…230bbacked Yes | 52c | 488.7$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 2c | 474.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 467.11$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 54c | 434$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.56 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 425.8$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.2 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…61e1backed Yes | 72c | 419.99$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 43c | 410.34$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.48 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 398.9$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c0…65ffbacked Yes | 50c | 363.48$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 52c | 361.43$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.45 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 70c | 349.09$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.77 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 71c | 328.04$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.42 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 79c | 316.46$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 34c | 310$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.8 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed No | 43c | 307.2$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.87 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 69c | 301.22$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.81 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 36c | 290.12$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.88 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 19c | 282.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.93 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 53c | 264.38$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 54c | 254.19$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed No | 19c | 239.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 239.76$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 233.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 70c | 232.86$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.87 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 228.54$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 50c | 212$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 11c | 210.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 201.93$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 66c | 196.66$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed No | 79c | 188.95$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 180$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 52c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 169.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 51c | 169.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 50c | 167.54$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 156$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 155.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked Yes | 50c | 154.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 37c | 153.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 146$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 51c | 143.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 56c | 141.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 141$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 138.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 71c | 138$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 134.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 11c | 133.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 62c | 121.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 46c | 120.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…831cbacked Yes | 79c | 116.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 21c | 108.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 57c | 104.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked No | 49c | 102.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3964…14f0backed Yes | 79c | 100.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…a11abacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 19c | 99.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 96.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed No | 45c | 96.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 27c | 94.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed No | 50c | 93.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 44c | 93.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…e203backed Yes | 52c | 92.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…b434backed No | 53c | 88.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 64c | 85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 84.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 47c | 84.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 57c | 83.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 16c | 81.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.