Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x483affeb32c2422091c5acda339df516c52d38689092fcdc14c9e31af3d36107
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 43c | 1,167$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.07 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 1,143$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,071$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 897.43$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 765.62$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.23 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 8c | 638$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 533.12$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.02 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 399.04$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 32c | 390.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 33c | 350.36$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 12c | 343.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…d205backed No | 79c | 321.68$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 303$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 41c | 301.02$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 44c | 295.42$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 36c | 290.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 66c | 287.93$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 35c | 278.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 38c | 261.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 25c | 255.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 33c | 244.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 216.07$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 33c | 209.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 41c | 198$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 196.21$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 31c | 195.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 195.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 188.23$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 37c | 183.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 44c | 172.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 56c | 166.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 63c | 161.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 16c | 158.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 150.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 139.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 36c | 137$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 133.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 11c | 121.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 116$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…e611backed No | 70c | 115$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…831cbacked Yes | 15c | 113.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 113$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 40c | 111.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a22…f06ebacked Yes | 15c | 105.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 39c | 103.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 14c | 101.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 37c | 101.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 33c | 97.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 95.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…4fcabacked Yes | 46c | 90.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 90.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 29c | 85.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 63c | 81.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…5ac2backed Yes | 32c | 80.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 21c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 55c | 78.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 54c | 76.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 71.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 35c | 70.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 64c | 67.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…5c89backed Yes | 36c | 66.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 28c | 66.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 53c | 65.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 64.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 26c | 64.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…de1abacked Yes | 25c | 63.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 63.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 62.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 61.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 61.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 38c | 59.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 37c | 58.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 41c | 56.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 53.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 52.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 50.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 22c | 45.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534f…4f76backed Yes | 43c | 44.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 39c | 43.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 43.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 43.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 42c | 42.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 43c | 41.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.