TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof Aurora, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$986,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,232,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $986,078 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 430 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Aurora50c183,301$91,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,788.1916147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked PARIVISION50c162,621$81,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,335.3628748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION48c160,466$77,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,680.2154556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora51c57,715$29,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,427.3155157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Aurora50c23,200$11,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,587.116043.3%26 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked PARIVISION79c21,330$16,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,447.785757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Aurora53c15,562$8,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,247.6913441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba4a…9fa6backed PARIVISION58c12,435$7,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,274.883857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed PARIVISION52c11,827$6,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,639.7620156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c27…eea9backed Aurora3c11,562$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.163464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.5wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora38c11,386$4,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,335.532,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed Aurora39c10,460$4,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,044.459447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30036041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Aurora53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.9922954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora35c8,361$2,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,962.891,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed PARIVISION52c7,913$4,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,826.349636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Aurora34c7,904$2,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,651.7114443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Aurora12c7,730$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.2148954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Aurora36c7,332$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,611.541242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Aurora7c7,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.131245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora53c6,887$3,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,67953451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed PARIVISION53c6,391$3,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,004.268749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a2b…7c68backed PARIVISION44c6,226$2,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,486.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76a0…4b1abacked PARIVISION45c6,224$2,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,423.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION53c6,036$3,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.8596557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Aurora42c5,650$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.3618746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora13c5,623$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.1340014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Aurora53c5,400$2,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,861.992751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1942…2c75backed Aurora52c5,207$2,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6905339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked PARIVISION60c5,119$3,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.125168.6%35 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Aurora35c5,060$1,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,755.9131835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55045139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed PARIVISION48c4,998$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,578.1969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Aurora28c4,882$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.4114943%64 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed PARIVISION48c4,691$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.3822643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Aurora53c4,680$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.99153.8%49 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Aurora51c4,500$2,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,310.874143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked PARIVISION50c4,391$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.71,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…8ca0backed Aurora56c4,380$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4845…cd3dbacked Aurora55c4,262$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,344.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed PARIVISION44c4,250$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379.9888539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…8809backed PARIVISION44c4,043$1,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f78…b642backed Aurora3c3,800$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1145825.9%15 W · 43 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63bc…4179backed PARIVISION59c3,750$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.468834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora53c3,699$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.3732854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Aurora54c3,435$1,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,838.946349.2%31 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed Aurora50c3,286$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,628757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7da…f1a2backed Aurora56c3,062$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Aurora16c3,044$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.4635758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora53c3,040$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,605.5880256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd7…88c6backed Aurora56c2,827$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked PARIVISION67c2,748$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.5518362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora47c2,690$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.171,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora44c2,505$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.682,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Aurora45c2,468$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.7873841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Aurora25c2,393$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.0516945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora52c2,370$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2221,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora48c2,337$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.121,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba7…438abacked Aurora51c2,235$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.63850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Aurora48c2,196$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.26637.9%25 W · 41 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Aurora35c2,160$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.69852%51 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Aurora48c2,158$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.351,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora4c2,140$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora50c2,121$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.7399844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed PARIVISION58c2,090$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.5266662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora52c2,046$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.4360542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c1…8174backed Aurora40c2,039$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.3124947.8%119 W · 130 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed PARIVISION50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0009749.5%48 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed PARIVISION49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0202850%14 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.9979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcb92…af8fbacked Aurora55c1,965$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Aurora50c1,839$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.888251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Aurora55c1,825$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora47c1,820$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.711,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Aurora50c1,802$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.2716550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Aurora3c1,774$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5437811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed PARIVISION47c1,730$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.928341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Aurora50c1,709$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.3711450%57 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c68…6746backed PARIVISION65c1,700$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.661861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+16.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe438…e80cbacked Aurora37c1,665$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.035910.2%6 W · 53 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked PARIVISION49c1,600$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.9960646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Aurora32c1,559$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.9811043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked Aurora50c1,533$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.736753.7%36 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora52c1,500$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.3480443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked PARIVISION51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73539936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Aurora50c1,447$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.4211549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora49c1,437$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.7260349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc5df…be7cbacked Aurora37c1,414$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.319428.7%27 W · 67 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed PARIVISION48c1,400$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.9958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed PARIVISION51c1,393$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.0555147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Aurora46c1,347$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.8633549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Aurora1c1,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora48c1,313$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.244757.4%27 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Aurora13c1,300$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16616725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Aurora45c1,277$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.837223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Aurora48c1,262$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked PARIVISION55c1,200$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.9177458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Aurora46c1,178$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.9912661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec8a…94b3backed Aurora3c1,170$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb110…21eabacked Aurora51c1,169$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6007550.7%38 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.