Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dc9d0e1d9b8384dd7406d69752653e71405684ac3d79a344c0bdc01cfe44615
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof Aurora, PARIVISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $986,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,232,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $986,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 430 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Aurora | 50c | 183,301$91,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91,788.19 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked PARIVISION | 50c | 162,621$81,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,335.36 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION | 48c | 160,466$77,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,680.21 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 51c | 57,715$29,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,427.31 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Aurora | 50c | 23,200$11,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,587.11 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked PARIVISION | 79c | 21,330$16,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,447.78 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed Aurora | 53c | 15,562$8,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,247.69 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba4a…9fa6backed PARIVISION | 58c | 12,435$7,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,274.88 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed PARIVISION | 52c | 11,827$6,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,639.76 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…eea9backed Aurora | 3c | 11,562$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.16 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 38c | 11,386$4,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,335.53 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…de83backed Aurora | 39c | 10,460$4,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,044.45 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Aurora | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,299.99 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 35c | 8,361$2,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.89 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed PARIVISION | 52c | 7,913$4,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,826.34 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Aurora | 34c | 7,904$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,651.71 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 12c | 7,730$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.21 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Aurora | 36c | 7,332$2,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.5 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Aurora | 7c | 7,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.1 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 53c | 6,887$3,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,679 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed PARIVISION | 53c | 6,391$3,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,004.26 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2b…7c68backed PARIVISION | 44c | 6,226$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,486.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…4b1abacked PARIVISION | 45c | 6,224$2,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,423.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION | 53c | 6,036$3,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,836.85 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Aurora | 42c | 5,650$2,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,393.36 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora | 13c | 5,623$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.13 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Aurora | 53c | 5,400$2,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…2c75backed Aurora | 52c | 5,207$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd408…e85cbacked PARIVISION | 60c | 5,119$3,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.12 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Aurora | 35c | 5,060$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.91 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed PARIVISION | 48c | 4,998$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,578.19 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Aurora | 28c | 4,882$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.41 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed PARIVISION | 48c | 4,691$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,439.38 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Aurora | 53c | 4,680$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.9 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Aurora | 51c | 4,500$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310.87 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked PARIVISION | 50c | 4,391$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.7 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…8ca0backed Aurora | 56c | 4,380$2,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4845…cd3dbacked Aurora | 55c | 4,262$2,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,344.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed PARIVISION | 44c | 4,250$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.98 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…8809backed PARIVISION | 44c | 4,043$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…b642backed Aurora | 3c | 3,800$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…4179backed PARIVISION | 59c | 3,750$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.46 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora | 53c | 3,699$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.37 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…a603backed Aurora | 54c | 3,435$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.94 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…0664backed Aurora | 50c | 3,286$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…f1a2backed Aurora | 56c | 3,062$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Aurora | 16c | 3,044$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.46 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora | 53c | 3,040$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.58 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…88c6backed Aurora | 56c | 2,827$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked PARIVISION | 67c | 2,748$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.55 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 47c | 2,690$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.17 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 44c | 2,505$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.68 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 45c | 2,468$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.78 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Aurora | 25c | 2,393$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.05 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora | 52c | 2,370$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 48c | 2,337$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.12 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba7…438abacked Aurora | 51c | 2,235$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…dbd1backed Aurora | 48c | 2,196$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.2 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Aurora | 35c | 2,160$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.6 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 48c | 2,158$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.35 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 4c | 2,140$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 50c | 2,121$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.73 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed PARIVISION | 58c | 2,090$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.52 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora | 52c | 2,046$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.43 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c1…8174backed Aurora | 40c | 2,039$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.31 | 249 | 47.8%119 W · 130 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…ab65backed PARIVISION | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ff…a491backed PARIVISION | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.99 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb92…af8fbacked Aurora | 55c | 1,965$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1259backed Aurora | 50c | 1,839$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.88 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora | 55c | 1,825$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora | 47c | 1,820$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.71 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Aurora | 50c | 1,802$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.27 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Aurora | 3c | 1,774$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed PARIVISION | 47c | 1,730$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.9 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed Aurora | 50c | 1,709$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.37 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c68…6746backed PARIVISION | 65c | 1,700$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.66 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…e80cbacked Aurora | 37c | 1,665$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.03 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 1,600$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.99 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed Aurora | 32c | 1,559$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.98 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked Aurora | 50c | 1,533$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.73 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 52c | 1,500$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.34 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked PARIVISION | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed Aurora | 50c | 1,447$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.42 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora | 49c | 1,437$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.72 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…be7cbacked Aurora | 37c | 1,414$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.31 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed PARIVISION | 48c | 1,400$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.99 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed PARIVISION | 51c | 1,393$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.05 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Aurora | 46c | 1,347$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.86 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Aurora | 1c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora | 48c | 1,313$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.24 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Aurora | 13c | 1,300$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Aurora | 45c | 1,277$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.8 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked Aurora | 48c | 1,262$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked PARIVISION | 55c | 1,200$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.91 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed Aurora | 46c | 1,178$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.99 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…94b3backed Aurora | 3c | 1,170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb110…21eabacked Aurora | 51c | 1,169$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)PARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.