Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e220d41751ae4d22b02ae479ae4de826435664ccea297c3817bda0f13cf31aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $370,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11e5…afb0backed Yes | 0c | 90,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed Yes | 12c | 22,553$2,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750.93 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 8,333$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.32 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,882$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.65 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 18c | 5,691$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.21 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 1c | 3,927$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,687$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 15c | 1,278$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.96 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 17c | 810$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.19 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 5c | 714.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed No | 55c | 502.14$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.47 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 24c | 497.83$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 14c | 417.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes | 19c | 393.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 4c | 370$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef58…2f14backed No | 64c | 326.19$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…38a4backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 14c | 255$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…5e79backed Yes | 33c | 231$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 15c | 197.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -76%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…dbd4backed Yes | 14c | 183.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 9c | 169.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 160$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed No | 65c | 152.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 136.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…a125backed No | 49c | 119.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 67c | 112.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 33c | 104.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 31c | 96.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 45c | 96.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked Yes | 39c | 95.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…dfbbbacked No | 44c | 89.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes | 62c | 89.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 20c | 79.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 47c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed No | 74c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…47d2backed No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…05a0backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…819fbacked Yes | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 22?this page
- Will Trump sign 10 or more executive orders on January 22?No won
- Will Trump sign between 1 and 3 executive orders on January 22?Yes won
- Will Trump sign between 4 and 6 executive orders on January 22?No won
- Will Trump sign between 7 and 9 executive orders on January 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.