Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump sign between 1 and 3 executive orders on January 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67d64e67bf5854b30de8535b418b771b9bb909f2cb2df7d54c929ee65ac46094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 0c | 5,894$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 76c | 843.22$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.13 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 57c | 799.89$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.94 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 8c | 734.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed No | 18c | 678.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.39 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 65c | 384.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.61 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 77c | 184$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 29c | 183.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 183$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 74c | 158.84$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 31c | 104.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed Yes | 34c | 84.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 36c | 77.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 41c | 57.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…a2f8backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed Yes | 30c | 48.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 61c | 43.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…9a77backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 28c | 39.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 68c | 36.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 65c | 21.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump sign between 1 and 3 executive orders on January 22?this page
- Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 22?No won
- Will Trump sign 10 or more executive orders on January 22?No won
- Will Trump sign between 4 and 6 executive orders on January 22?No won
- Will Trump sign between 7 and 9 executive orders on January 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.