Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e558defa2e948b5f4cdc0b1310b430c012a45005ef75d9565071bf6136a09d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 946.05$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.67 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 448.39$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 269$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 233.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 220$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 32c | 214.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 31c | 207.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 192.63$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 180.71$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 171.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 155.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 29c | 152.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 140.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 135$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 130.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 57c | 122.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 121$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 44c | 117.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 18c | 109.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 37c | 103.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 73c | 99.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 94.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 41c | 91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 89.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 89.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 87.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 44c | 84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 26c | 82.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 29c | 77.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 69c | 76.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 73.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 59c | 69.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 39c | 69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 43c | 66.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 63.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 35c | 62.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 61.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 57.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 56.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 37c | 54.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 54.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 53.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 53.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 25c | 51.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 42c | 51.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 34c | 49.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 55c | 49.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 23c | 49.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 24c | 46.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 45c | 44.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 45c | 44.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…a784backed Yes | 38c | 42.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…1856backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 39.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 43c | 38.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…402ebacked Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 35.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 35.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 45c | 31.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed Yes | 35c | 30.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 30.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 64c | 27.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 26.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 45c | 25.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 55c | 21.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 20.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 69c | 20.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 73c | 19.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 73c | 19.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 72c | 16.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 15.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 73c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.