Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3de267808a05cbcd480bf0f508d9671d8eea12250804200b1bab6694f54b85fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 46c | 493.35$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 44c | 457.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 452.73$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 378.17$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 48c | 368.95$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 43c | 306.76$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 269.87$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 244.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 58c | 223.82$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 54c | 218.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed Yes | 73c | 189.61$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 45c | 178$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 55c | 178$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 52c | 177.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 175.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 168.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 167.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 80c | 158.81$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 56c | 158.76$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…f1dabacked No | 53c | 155.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 148.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 34c | 145.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 44c | 137.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 136.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 135.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…58adbacked Yes | 68c | 133.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 132.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 44c | 131.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 131.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 36c | 128.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 109.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 46c | 100.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 54c | 99.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 96.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 32c | 95.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 48c | 94.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 36c | 90.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 84.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 58c | 81.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 24c | 80.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 61c | 77.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 64c | 77.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 34c | 76.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 42c | 75.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…a3a9backed No | 48c | 73.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3132…30d1backed Yes | 56c | 70.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 50c | 70.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 52c | 65.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 38c | 65.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…b6e1backed Yes | 56c | 64.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 45c | 63.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 57c | 61.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 63c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 43c | 57.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 47c | 56.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 58c | 55.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 58c | 55.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 55.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 56c | 55.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 53.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 50.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 50c | 50.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 49.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 42c | 49.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 44c | 49.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 45c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 31c | 44.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 57c | 44.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 47c | 42.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 48c | 41.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 56c | 40.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 49c | 40.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 55c | 39.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 77c | 37.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 39c | 37.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 35.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 60c | 34.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 48c | 33.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 43c | 32.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 31.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 60c | 31.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 48c | 31.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 62c | 30.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…d5babacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 37c | 28.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.