NFL · resolved market
Will Mike Evans reach 1,000 receiving yards this season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e90e222f985f935ed83c6c44817fd7865a5caa82031b2299458671b0fb78db9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked No | 31c | 8,774$2,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,716.85 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 41c | 7,622$3,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,122.61 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…07a4backed Yes | 44c | 6,137$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,437.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 78c | 5,055$3,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…3e6cbacked No | 55c | 2,758$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 23c | 2,107$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.7 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 35c | 1,080$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…ca61backed Yes | 71c | 1,046$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 37c | 994.91$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.57 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 79c | 484.49$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 55c | 437.38$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 56c | 424.22$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.85 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes | 73c | 309.42$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…ac49backed Yes | 48c | 282.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 53c | 276.32$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 29c | 264.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 48c | 225$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…53a6backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f0…70aabacked Yes | 49c | 205.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked No | 47c | 200.37$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Yes | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed No | 56c | 190$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…e182backed Yes | 61c | 182.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 48c | 168.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…7021backed Yes | 79c | 162.26$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…d36cbacked Yes | 79c | 159.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0635…4764backed No | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked No | 57c | 155.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…b309backed Yes | 79c | 124.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 109.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x158e…c6ecbacked No | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 45c | 77.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 43c | 76.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c33…c968backed No | 55c | 72.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…ad65backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb967…388ebacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…62c1backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fc…88dbbacked Yes | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 47.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…cfa7backed Yes | 78c | 41.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b11…5355backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ce…e4dabacked Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes | 79c | 34.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7b…99b8backed No | 40c | 30.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 47c | 30.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3472…d4f2backed No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…0701backed Yes | 79c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…bdd6backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…e252backed Yes | 61c | 19.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…d31abacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f4…61b1backed Yes | 79c | 18.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1b…2da8backed Yes | 61c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…01afbacked No | 56c | 17.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dec…6dd1backed Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.