MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eaa8d23f7670e9924ff8dc9c5bd5f64b3284cde6c0d1fceff838a644e85a0ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…cf16backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 6,585$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.57 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 4,188$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310.83 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 3,971$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,462.02 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 3,860$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.12 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 2,110$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.2 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 1,932$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.43 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 1,841$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.08 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 1,453$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.18 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 1,430$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.52 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 1,102$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.64 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…72a3backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 1,037$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.21 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…5c37backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 790.39$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 763.19$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.18 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 502.21$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.72 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…56dcbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 302.23$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 292.11$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.13 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd5…af99backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 285.71$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 254.68$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 220.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.88 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 184$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 156.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 152.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 110$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 110$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 70.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320e…5d1fbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 58.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 50.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 366 | 50.8%186 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 40.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 623 | 46.2%288 W · 335 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 39.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 29.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e4…d492backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.