MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8faecbffb1b1385e237a24c1ba71eaa909168db5a541ce105b709c63c849952a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 50c | 181,432$90,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90,561.41 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 50c | 34,619$17,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,309.65 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 28,016$14,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,008.09 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 50c | 23,239$11,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,619.64 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 20,703$10,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,351.5 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 50c | 20,299$10,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,149.5 | 277 | 53.1%147 W · 130 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 50c | 18,381$9,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,125.8 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 16,294$8,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,045.9 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Over | 50c | 14,638$7,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,319.14 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 12,667$6,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,333.5 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 51c | 10,179$5,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,987.71 | 224 | 47.3%106 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 12c | 2,323$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.08 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 48c | 2,210$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.7 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 2,055$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 50c | 1,731$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.48 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 50c | 1,505$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.55 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 1,022$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.15 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,011$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.3 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 800$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 49c | 792.12$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.98 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 50c | 718$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 10c | 696.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 586$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.14 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 4c | 573.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 50c | 473$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.5 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…6465backed Under | 51c | 456.98$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.92 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 50c | 408.16$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.08 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Under | 71c | 384$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 50c | 356.56$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.28 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 52c | 346.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 4c | 320.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 8c | 283$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 269.4$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.37 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 48c | 206$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Under | 54c | 185.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 159.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 24c | 159.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 52c | 142.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 274 | 47.8%131 W · 143 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 135.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…2b2cbacked Under | 52c | 128.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Under | 51c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 52c | 95.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 80.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Over | 29c | 68.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 50c | 60.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…3aecbacked Under | 50c | 45.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 50c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Under | 51c | 38.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 58c | 34.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 50c | 33.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Under | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeadb…378fbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 50c | 20.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.