TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,477 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes10c1,940$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.62,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed Yes3c1,309$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.982944.8%13 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes10c1,279$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6135018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes6c881.83$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0131341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes12c849.86$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.91,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes15c790.77$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.531,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes6c750$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes14c696.96$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c609.65$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes9c599.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9856118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes14c552.88$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8446626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes3c503.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes10c501.67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.61,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes9c445.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.636,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd59e…75adbacked Yes8c416.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.91616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+107.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes12c400.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6485330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes9c400$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c396.83$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.867,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes10c388.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes12c379.91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1910120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…2cfebacked Yes23c301.47$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes11c295.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1434617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b43…ee79backed Yes15c256.1$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.97850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e24…bc24backed Yes12c255.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes11c254$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.221,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed Yes10c249.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes12c248.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.359529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c221.16$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes20c214.37$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.915334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes8c203.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed Yes14c202.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.959836.7%36 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes17c200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3323738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba3a…e041backed Yes10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.369927.3%27 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes6c199.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1228718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes10c199.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.261,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes12c199.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.071,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Yes10c191.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.184924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No75c186.03$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.892,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8783…d1aabacked Yes19c185.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.821662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9536…68f9backed Yes11c184.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.56121.3%13 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes9c182.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1617135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883f…0634backed Yes19c177.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.57536%27 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b50…1ddbbacked Yes27c163.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes22c161.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2718035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe013…764fbacked Yes18c156.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.36744.8%30 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes15c156.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.723,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes7c153.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8916651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes7c149.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee3…a899backed Yes10c147$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72b8…5b9cbacked Yes17c145.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c145$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.053,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes9c141.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2e7…2040backed Yes11c140.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.72520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe99b…4d39backed Yes21c140.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.43425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes10c140$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.551,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes16c127.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.783644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed No79c126.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0449941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes19c120.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.81,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6850…d921backed Yes19c119.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.578111.1%9 W · 72 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes12c119.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3414915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes10c116.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9819541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477e…7d74backed Yes19c115.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.482317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes15c114.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.653435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed Yes13c111$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0712223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed Yes16c110.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8302…0383backed Yes18c108.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c108.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.483,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes22c107.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.715313.2%7 W · 46 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-29.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No71c105.16$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1641070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x509c…5b0cbacked Yes24c105$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15c6…3214backed Yes19c104$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef5…5200backed Yes14c102.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4280%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e88…ab30backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked No80c99.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc18…68a6backed Yes19c98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-57.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc456…9319backed Yes23c96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes11c95.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.662,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3efd…b982backed Yes25c94.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.712725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b9…24a9backed Yes21c94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Yes17c89.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154520%9 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed No79c87.31$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.348748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b37…8f10backed Yes18c83.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.291233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7480…8f12backed Yes20c81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c80.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.287,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d8…dfebbacked No79c80.34$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.524057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes20c73.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes17c71.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9193837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d5…7b83backed Yes21c71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.914621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe140…e240backed Yes15c70.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2512932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes46c69.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa24a…b45ebacked Yes39c64.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+67.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65c7…9109backed Yes16c63.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes26c60.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9822028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa29d…747bbacked Yes22c57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.543511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick16cpaid+208%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No79c56.1$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes33c56.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes19c52.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.715453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.