TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,654 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x42f8…f96fbacked No2c2,393$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.912638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+56.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No6c1,686$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1928737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes45c699.85$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.928762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes77c629.08$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.766,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes56c608.11$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.6410120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes52c577.17$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.172729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24f1…537cbacked Yes65c559.03$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.225100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes55c546.76$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.741,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes65c542.04$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.7277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes71c466.49$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.161,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes74c410.54$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.984235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No16c343.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8546626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No36c327.68$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.444,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cc…779dbacked No37c299.96$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c288.04$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes54c277$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4233139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes43c254$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.771,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No45c250.59$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.832,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c249.65$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.838,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcda…bb51backed Yes67c237.56$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.563850%19 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No38c231.54$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.911,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes74c230$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.811731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No47c225.78$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c211.22$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.4817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No56c205.94$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.912,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e24…bc24backed Yes49c203.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.57911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba3a…e041backed Yes75c200.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.329927.3%27 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4533058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No8c199.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes44c199.92$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.9610728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc7d…305ebacked No53c199.75$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.193458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes63c198.24$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1817338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed Yes55c182.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3917156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2d…7253backed Yes78c174.24$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No26c169.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8723035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes62c169.35$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.351464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No22c157.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No16c156.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.621,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x131d…42e4backed No44c155$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e5…3449backed No43c143$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No40c140.82$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.859,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46c7…71a0backed No27c131.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32a8…be9bbacked No24c130$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.378667.4%58 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3de5…00ccbacked Yes77c129.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.241464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes46c125.41$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.291,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes40c124.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9611146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes67c124.66$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.072832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes62c123$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5132444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes62c120$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.435465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c119.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.81,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a11…6961backed No32c117.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c116.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.97,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes48c115.55$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.553435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed No14c109.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6311220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No57c106.7$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.622675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked No11c105.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.273438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes56c102.65$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6121333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes44c100.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1663538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4911145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e3…700dbacked Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeda…b697backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208872.7%64 W · 24 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes39c99.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9720534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb20e…58cebacked No61c99.12$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602286.4%19 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick72cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No45c97.17$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.521,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes74c96.88$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9711249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5209…b249backed Yes78c94.74$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.91933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes43c94.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.11464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No55c93.73$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.243,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No43c92.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.211,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…81ebbacked Yes56c89.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8783…d1aabacked Yes76c86.71$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.881662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes35c82.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc25d…67b3backed Yes75c81.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8111161.3%68 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No57c81.52$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7252571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes52c80.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1711337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbc2…e280backed Yes62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.652070%14 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa271…f308backed Yes63c80.11$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes36c79.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.211835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes25c79.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2af7…570dbacked Yes61c77.67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.32462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No55c76.92$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5831868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked Yes72c76.39$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.397758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4210…dd70backed Yes40c75.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2817040%68 W · 102 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes24c74.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9959818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8680…a628backed No27c74.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa31c…bdf7backed Yes54c73.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.921145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…c28cbacked No58c72.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423565.7%23 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5864…e473backed Yes54c70.95$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.831145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes54c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1512932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No54c69.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6448672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01eb…8a7bbacked Yes48c68.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.991435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7105…b731backed No23c68.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8a…9fb8backed No36c68.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.24425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc585…c51ebacked Yes74c67.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.682657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…aac1backed Yes56c63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.