Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f8f95daeacf8151b0e29c313645100df76af7d3495b21c7fb54602b3b18f1ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa616…5368backed Yes | 1c | 1,443$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 30c | 684.71$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.82 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 62c | 383.99$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.17 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 283.33$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 20c | 198$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 181.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 36c | 168.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 40c | 161.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…eba4backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 148.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 36c | 138.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 136.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 40c | 129.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 125.94$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 29c | 120.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50f…c0b3backed Yes | 17c | 114.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 113.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 107.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 28c | 104.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 102$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 99.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 41c | 96.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 35c | 95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 75.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…4ec2backed Yes | 35c | 68.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 65.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 63.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 62.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 56.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 28c | 54.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 67c | 49.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 34c | 47.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 71c | 34.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 74c | 31.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 30.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 26.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 42c | 25.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 18.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.