Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ef521e2c07ba6ea8609b34d9f7784834641a744b3a02584591b9c3d44ad5a6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 66c | 412.32$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.19 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 72c | 305.06$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 64c | 279.01$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 70c | 273.35$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 231.2$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 227.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 218.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 213.87$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 38c | 199.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 185.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 74c | 176.58$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 26c | 161$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.47 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 154.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 152.69$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 70c | 148.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 142$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 134.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 134.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…4ec2backed Yes | 25c | 132.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 131$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 130.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 128.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 127.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 124.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 59c | 99.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 36c | 96.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 96.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 35c | 95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 91.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 91.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 34c | 88.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 67c | 87.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 84.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 77.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 19c | 76.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 74c | 70.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 44c | 65.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 57.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 21c | 55.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 39c | 53.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…d8b0backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 45.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 79c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 37c | 39.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 38.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 53c | 38.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 37.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 30.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 18.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.