TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Abidjan: Florent Bax vs Niels Visker

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Florent Baxof Florent Bax, Niels Visker
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,529
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,529 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Niels Visker57c6,512$3,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,690.642,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Niels Visker2c3,100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497732.5%25 W · 52 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked Niels Visker2c3,100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497828.2%22 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+31.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Niels Visker54c3,087$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.248,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Florent Bax51c2,981$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.682,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Niels Visker73c2,938$2,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144.6862061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed Niels Visker1c2,700$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334829.2%14 W · 34 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+273.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Florent Bax49c2,695$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.381,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Florent Bax52c2,633$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.2779855.9%446 W · 352 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Niels Visker46c2,566$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.942,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Niels Visker49c2,342$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.5354345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Niels Visker1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed Florent Bax25c2,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50027431.8%87 W · 187 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Niels Visker41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82058734.6%203 W · 384 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Florent Bax54c1,986$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.6662545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8594…3733backed Florent Bax64c1,979$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71312756.7%72 W · 55 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Florent Bax45c1,850$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Niels Visker56c1,757$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.154,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Florent Bax49c1,649$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.873,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Niels Visker41c1,473$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.873,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Florent Bax59c1,324$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.6450458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Niels Visker57c1,294$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.254,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Niels Visker1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124124.4%10 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Florent Bax41c1,192$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.3617654.5%96 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Niels Visker55c1,096$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.836,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Florent Bax59c1,090$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.3418159.7%108 W · 73 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Niels Visker56c1,079$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.4785348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Niels Visker50c1,077$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.142,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Niels Visker40c1,062$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.7939534.4%136 W · 259 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Niels Visker1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13821.2%1 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Florent Bax53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47026045.4%118 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Florent Bax44c982.11$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.318,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d8…0175backed Niels Visker2c970$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8450%0 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Florent Bax24c748.85$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.4568026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Florent Bax51c681.38$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.644,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5760…40aabacked Florent Bax45c644.67$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.572050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Florent Bax59c628.22$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.574,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked Florent Bax37c593.27$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.2118849.5%93 W · 95 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Niels Visker56c575$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.166,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Niels Visker57c565.04$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.212,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Florent Bax53c558.62$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.823,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x400d…e759backed Niels Visker41c540.88$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.7660856.6%344 W · 264 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Florent Bax49c536.01$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.221,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ec…23bdbacked Niels Visker76c527$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.5216769.5%116 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Florent Bax29c521.95$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.3535436.4%129 W · 225 L-16.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf01f…e8fbbacked Florent Bax26c514.78$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.8226426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x800b…152abacked Florent Bax59c499.47$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.787163.4%45 W · 26 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf629…38d5backed Florent Bax61c480.76$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.794173.2%30 W · 11 L+9.1wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+42.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Niels Visker6c444.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.724632.9%81 W · 165 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Niels Visker52c392.51$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.111,01846.8%476 W · 542 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa724…7bdabacked Niels Visker50c369.08$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.5429754.5%162 W · 135 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Niels Visker41c348.29$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.858232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Florent Bax50c344.17$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.2936244.8%162 W · 200 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Florent Bax57c341.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.981,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Florent Bax58c336.14$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1818462%114 W · 70 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Florent Bax59c330.64$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5629444.2%130 W · 164 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Florent Bax59c330.63$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.561,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Niels Visker53c329.69$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.565,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Florent Bax35c325.43$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.6617460.3%105 W · 69 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed Florent Bax61c320.04$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.8119657.1%112 W · 84 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ab8…ec20backed Florent Bax28c297.43$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+39.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Niels Visker39c275.88$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6338013.9%53 W · 327 L-38.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-55.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x8dbb…c0fdbacked Niels Visker73c273.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.829856.1%55 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc57d…75bbbacked Niels Visker46c257.59$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.491040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51bb…a38bbacked Florent Bax63c249.82$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7522567.1%151 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Niels Visker6c245.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1129039.3%114 W · 176 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Florent Bax65c227.5$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.691,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Niels Visker59c226.49$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6394549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Niels Visker19c219$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3448235.9%173 W · 309 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked Niels Visker6c218$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0918132.6%59 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Niels Visker46c210.35$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7632554.2%176 W · 149 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Florent Bax47c205.63$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.81,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Niels Visker48c202.93$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.379,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a12…d3febacked Florent Bax59c195.08$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.989247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Florent Bax45c193.38$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9855360.4%334 W · 219 L+32.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Florent Bax56c189.04$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.332,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Niels Visker57c188.12$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1343558.6%255 W · 180 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Florent Bax59c184.66$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.917,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Florent Bax44c177.79$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8716136%58 W · 103 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Florent Bax58c175.45$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4716029.4%47 W · 113 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18d2…a67dbacked Florent Bax57c170.05$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.613655.6%20 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb740…2ec1backed Florent Bax58c168.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5935157%200 W · 151 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Niels Visker24c167.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1339845.5%181 W · 217 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab3…2669backed Florent Bax29c165.07$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.23246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Niels Visker26c159.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1858048.4%281 W · 299 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Florent Bax58c154.64$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3460355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a3…d8e8backed Niels Visker57c152.76$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.042250%11 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Niels Visker14c152$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5545235.8%162 W · 290 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Niels Visker14c152$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5525737%95 W · 162 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Niels Visker41c150$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.586835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Florent Bax59c150$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2549142.8%210 W · 281 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb386…5087backed Niels Visker68c145.68$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.061050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71a…2012backed Niels Visker64c145.36$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.095596.4%53 W · 2 L+19.1wins+0.35per pick62cpaid+57.2%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Niels Visker47c143.67$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.841,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Niels Visker41c142.74$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.111,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Niels Visker60c141.72$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.034,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Niels Visker42c141.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.422,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf00e…00f4backed Florent Bax24c141.37$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.443455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Niels Visker35c140$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6839941.9%167 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Niels Visker59c137.98$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.923,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.