TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,001
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,001 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c893.49$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.2132748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes39c649.3$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.323723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No64c419.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.6339952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes41c348.11$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.1339231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No51c338.91$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9290%0 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No54c331.11$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9123551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes41c293.97$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3244138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No52c286$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.721553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No77c274.27$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.447057.1%40 W · 30 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes38c268.63$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.1311636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes46c268.18$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.488736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No66c264.95$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1921854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes44c250$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.62955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7711…41e6backed No71c238.77$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c237.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5646330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No56c227.53$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5812640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No27c192.28$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7340648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c191.56$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.444428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes34c183.42$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.923360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes44c143.66$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.914944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes23c135.01$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.266224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes32c126$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5710629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes42c125.67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3612040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes49c122.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.46333.3%21 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No49c120.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.838856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No58c119.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.133743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed Yes49c113.45$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.871376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No58c112.07$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.04825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-58.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed No52c112.01$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.815837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes51c109.08$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.453231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c105$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8636055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No51c104.95$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6821844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No55c104.9$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6712055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f48…a145backed Yes48c104.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.161258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes20c104.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.434129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes54c100.14$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1214842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.048235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes33c97.21$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.591747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes44c94.98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No59c92.57$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.532354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes14c92.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.325427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ea…3ce8backed No54c91.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-74%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes50c91$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.51,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes43c88.93$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.015234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes42c81.29$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.295536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No50c80.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.672759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes51c78.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.235644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes43c74.66$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.564862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes46c71.8$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.518158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes46c71.79$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.454555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c71.53$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c71.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes61c70.57$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcec2…fababacked Yes42c70.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes38c69.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6418342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes18c69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5826632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No50c66.51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.28728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes16c65.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.15646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed Yes43c65.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.631566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+61.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes41c64.24$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9912055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No57c63.49$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2326052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes52c63.32$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.657951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x948f…0b98backed Yes70c63.07$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.211687.5%14 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick68cpaid+29.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes25c62.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6622111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes51c61.38$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.947248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No56c60.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6113357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.416738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc209…7082backed Yes43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.41010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-76.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c59.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6417345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No80c58.76$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0118445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes43c58.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.144452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1afe…9fe1backed Yes39c58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No51c57.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2514351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f24…64b5backed No49c56.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.591353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked No58c55.8$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.32231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No49c55.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.288743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes51c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.713262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes48c54.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.445248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No57c54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.79756.7%55 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde17…e06fbacked No50c53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes46c53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6210320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked Yes40c52.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.362572%18 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a5…9156backed Yes40c51.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes43c51.04$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.088937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb22c…8aadbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d3…a178backed No71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-70.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No58c49.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No57c49.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.098844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes33c48.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.245127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5826355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes54c47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.623339.4%13 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes52c46.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes44c45.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1212238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes42c45.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.134231%13 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes46c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.32634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes41c44.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.22850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.