World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1053366eb3335d2718b3b367879a0fb21174bc56c6ff24a172ef7c1817460e4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 893.49$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.21 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 649.3$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.3 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 419.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.63 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 348.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.13 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 51c | 338.91$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 331.11$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.91 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 293.97$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.32 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 52c | 286$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 274.27$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.44 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 38c | 268.63$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 46c | 268.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.48 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 264.95$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 44c | 250$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7711…41e6backed No | 71c | 238.77$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 237.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.56 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 227.53$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.58 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 192.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 191.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 34c | 183.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 143.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 23c | 135.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 32c | 126$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 42c | 125.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 122.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 120.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 58c | 119.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 49c | 113.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 58c | 112.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 52c | 112.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 51c | 109.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 105$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 104.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 55c | 104.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f48…a145backed Yes | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 20c | 104.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 54c | 100.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 33c | 97.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 44c | 94.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 92.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 14c | 92.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 54c | 91.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 43c | 88.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 42c | 81.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 50c | 80.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 51c | 78.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 43c | 74.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 71.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 46c | 71.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 71.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 71.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 70.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 42c | 70.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 38c | 69.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 50c | 66.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 16c | 65.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 43c | 65.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 64.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 63.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 63.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 70c | 63.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 62.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 51c | 61.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 56c | 60.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 80c | 58.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…9fe1backed Yes | 39c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 51c | 57.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 49c | 56.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 58c | 55.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 49c | 55.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 48c | 54.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked No | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 40c | 52.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 40c | 51.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 43c | 51.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 49.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 48.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 52c | 46.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 45.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 41c | 44.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.