World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2be0d45456759306b23f6d89bba0840f7be5e33cdbfd4ca338d5ccf0c18a8b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 17c | 965.06$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed Yes | 26c | 377.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 19c | 356.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 6c | 294.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 214.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 209.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 28c | 209.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 209$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 204.02$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 18c | 189.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 162.85$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 19c | 157.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 27c | 149.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 124.44$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 123.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 73c | 95.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 92.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 79.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 78.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 14c | 77.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 74.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 24c | 72.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 79c | 70.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 21c | 68.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 66.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 20c | 65.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 65.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 28c | 59.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 58.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 51.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 20c | 51.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 42.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 28c | 40.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 28.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 27.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…b9b4backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +56%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x473a…5203backed No | 74c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…d3f4backed No | 75c | 16.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 73c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 79c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.