World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65a4f7a5c25c5c3933831f541425382cb146794f5cd8f25d59dbb1bce3986db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,646$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.76 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,274$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.05 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 57c | 956.32$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 63c | 855.56$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.86 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 664.93$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.46 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 634.64$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.89 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 430.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 416$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 73c | 389.12$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.85 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed No | 49c | 367.87$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 366.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.52 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 46c | 336.93$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 331.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 337 | 48.4%163 W · 174 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 324.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.79 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 322.68$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.48 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 300.45$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 20c | 282.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.43 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 254.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 26c | 249.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 239.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 35c | 228$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 219$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 77c | 217.13$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 202.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | -12.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 63c | 192.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 192.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 182.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 65c | 182.58$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 49c | 181.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 175.32$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 173.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 338 | 55.3%187 W · 151 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937a…bd76backed Yes | 30c | 166.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 24c | 166.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 34c | 164.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 30c | 161.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 38c | 156.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 48c | 155.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 154.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 141.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 267 | 32.6%87 W · 180 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 141.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 41c | 139$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 74c | 134.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 53c | 129.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 56c | 128$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 31c | 125.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 124.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 247 | 60.3%149 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 65c | 124.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 72c | 123.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 116$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 74c | 112.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 23c | 112.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 111.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 110.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 66c | 108.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 24c | 103.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 51c | 103.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 35c | 103.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a17…fc4fbacked Yes | 37c | 102.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 26c | 101.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 99.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 21c | 98.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 68c | 94.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 92.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 90.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 341 | 40.2%137 W · 204 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 40c | 88.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 87.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 52c | 83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 39c | 82.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 190 | 45.3%86 W · 104 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 81.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 63c | 79.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…980bbacked Yes | 26c | 77.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 50c | 71.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 26c | 70.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…7249backed No | 72c | 69.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 22c | 65.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 64.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 156 | 35.9%56 W · 100 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 47c | 64.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 62.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 62.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 56c | 62.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 31c | 62.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 175 | 37.7%66 W · 109 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 65c | 57.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 72c | 56.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 26c | 56.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 55.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 192 | 62.5%120 W · 72 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 51c | 54.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked No | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.