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World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,574 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x200e…7d37backed No80c3,000$2,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes43c1,646$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.767623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes14c1,274$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0515421.4%33 W · 121 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked No57c956.32$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.44966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes63c855.56$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.862035%7 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-49.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No55c664.93$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.4621844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c634.64$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.8989548.3%432 W · 463 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c430.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4847137.6%177 W · 294 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes6c416$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.967526.7%20 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+63.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes73c389.12$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.8513357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…d8b2backed No49c367.87$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No37c366.5$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.5222955.5%127 W · 102 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked No46c336.93$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.861747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes29c331.22$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3833748.4%163 W · 174 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No28c324.24$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.7925652%133 W · 123 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes50c322.68$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4813140.5%53 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No72c300.45$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1339231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514717%25 W · 122 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+57.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe549…0bcebacked Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked No20c282.93$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.434953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes37c254.04$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.912055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes26c249.69$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.62955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No38c239.96$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7655351.2%283 W · 270 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a22…2851backed Yes35c228$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No33c219$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14641152.3%215 W · 196 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed No77c217.13$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.781154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes37c202.11$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7812139.7%48 W · 73 L-12.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No63c192.66$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.853231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes45c192.24$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.758341%34 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes30c182.62$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556333.3%21 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No65c182.58$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.351553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes49c181.16$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6615441.6%64 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No74c175.32$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.25072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes29c173.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5133855.3%187 W · 151 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x937a…bd76backed Yes30c166.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd503…325fbacked Yes24c166.66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.41944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes34c164.53$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.418939.3%35 W · 54 L-8.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes30c161.92$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.837550.7%38 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcec2…fababacked Yes38c156.25$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed No48c155.5$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.595939%23 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c154.67$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1643649.5%216 W · 220 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No20c141.73$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.426732.6%87 W · 180 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes31c141.43$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.841442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes41c139$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.371952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe684…da82backed No74c134.02$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.71683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc16…1094backed Yes53c129.83$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.34650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No56c128$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.532853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes31c125.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0316934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7510629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No71c124.46$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1424760.3%149 W · 98 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No65c124.34$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.893852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes72c123.79$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5780%0 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c116$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1636755.3%203 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No74c112.8$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.383666.7%24 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes23c112.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.02633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c111.01$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3346329.4%136 W · 327 L-69.9wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c110.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.621,35044.4%600 W · 750 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No66c108.26$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2612055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes24c103.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.94129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No51c103.52$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.594261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes35c103.15$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9818342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a17…fc4fbacked Yes37c102.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes26c101.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.565536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.994233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No71c99.21$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.32050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No21c98.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4730944%136 W · 173 L-23.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No68c94.53$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c92.47$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7236154.8%198 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c90.7$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2134140.2%137 W · 204 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c0…b105backed No76c90$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.34386%37 W · 6 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick74cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No40c88.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.275824.1%14 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes27c87.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9114827%40 W · 108 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x070f…e902backed No52c83$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.021421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No39c82.36$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.219045.3%86 W · 104 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes28c81.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.128844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe522…8c25backed No63c79.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.061154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x549c…980bbacked Yes26c77.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes50c71.5$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes26c70.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2711040.9%45 W · 65 L-9.7wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f08…7249backed No72c69.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes22c65.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.445646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes24c64.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.815635.9%56 W · 100 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes47c64.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes29c62.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.389637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes29c62.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.18739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes56c62.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352544%11 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No31c62.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.967146.5%33 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.217537.7%66 W · 109 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.983046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes31c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.427346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No76c59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1627255.9%152 W · 120 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes35c57.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No65c57.62$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.174548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No72c56.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165044%22 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes26c56.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.788038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No73c55.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9119262.5%120 W · 72 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes40c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.93262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes51c54.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2911636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcabe…b95bbacked No68c53$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.