TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nick Hardtof Guido Justo, Nick Hardt
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,678

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,202 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef1b…8697backed Guido Justo38c24,759$9,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,520.57236.1%26 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nick Hardt63c14,493$9,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,369.079,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c50…e0c9backed Guido Justo29c6,897$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00042131.6%133 W · 288 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Nick Hardt66c6,530$4,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.074,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f5d…80a3backed Nick Hardt66c3,030$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.324961.4%153 W · 96 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Nick Hardt67c2,943$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.063,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b9…4467backed Guido Justo39c2,872$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.1438033.9%129 W · 251 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e1dfbacked Nick Hardt63c2,351$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.068552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nick Hardt57c2,252$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.189,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Nick Hardt63c2,233$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.584,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Guido Justo38c2,044$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.4811,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Guido Justo49c2,040$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00033737.1%125 W · 212 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b1…b851backed Guido Justo28c1,948$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.025728.1%16 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Nick Hardt76c1,712$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.4645737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Guido Justo36c1,705$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.1257321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf12f…b30fbacked Nick Hardt54c1,668$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.0672040.8%294 W · 426 L+2.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Nick Hardt70c1,429$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.5763556.7%360 W · 275 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Guido Justo42c1,073$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.6615351%78 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Nick Hardt59c1,065$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.23,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Guido Justo49c1,035$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50741645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Nick Hardt51c1,006$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.912,20436.9%813 W · 1,391 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Guido Justo34c988.22$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.98,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55bb…bc01backed Nick Hardt63c858.97$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.826442.2%27 W · 37 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Guido Justo26c839.28$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21852133%172 W · 349 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Guido Justo39c808.07$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.622,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Guido Justo49c762.05$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3751,42848.2%689 W · 739 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ad5…ccdebacked Guido Justo38c734$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9255032.7%180 W · 370 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb00c…0f71backed Guido Justo28c698.18$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x890a…7623backed Nick Hardt75c666.66$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6624975.5%188 W · 61 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Guido Justo38c653.29$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.251,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Nick Hardt71c646.91$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.475,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bf…a572backed Nick Hardt80c596.74$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.9819977.4%154 W · 45 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Nick Hardt66c570.05$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.931,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Guido Justo45c539.31$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.877,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0537…e9dcbacked Nick Hardt58c515.35$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3514246.5%66 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c52…9eaebacked Guido Justo2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010036%36 W · 64 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Nick Hardt54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2304,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d6…423dbacked Guido Justo2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107240.3%29 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Guido Justo40c498.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Nick Hardt63c490.19$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.371,18762.8%746 W · 441 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Guido Justo49c474.09$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.352557%299 W · 226 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Nick Hardt66c452.33$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.021,63252.7%860 W · 772 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Guido Justo27c444.63$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0537421.9%82 W · 292 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed Nick Hardt69c443.35$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.353158.1%18 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de6…fb10backed Nick Hardt53c437.74$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.7446255.8%258 W · 204 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a67…8893backed Nick Hardt64c393.02$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.492638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a17…5f06backed Guido Justo41c327.76$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13313137.4%49 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x104f…04aabacked Nick Hardt53c317.67$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3826134.1%89 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd898…a47dbacked Guido Justo39c302.85$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.114630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Nick Hardt62c301$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.221,22255%672 W · 550 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5baf…3e56backed Guido Justo49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14765840.9%269 W · 389 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f1…e83ebacked Guido Justo41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12326253.8%141 W · 121 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8546…35b8backed Nick Hardt62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11421460.3%129 W · 85 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed Nick Hardt52c299.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9913247%62 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked Guido Justo23c296.12$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6929048.3%140 W · 150 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed Nick Hardt77c295.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.087865.4%51 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Nick Hardt67c293.13$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.91,47643.8%647 W · 829 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba5c…2b06backed Guido Justo45c291.17$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Nick Hardt73c257.2$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.445,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Guido Justo47c254.21$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.062,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Guido Justo40c252.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.068,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Nick Hardt73c244.98$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.52,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Guido Justo6c224.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.611,38116.4%227 W · 1,154 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ffe…a60fbacked Guido Justo54c218.81$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1616967.5%114 W · 55 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Guido Justo39c216.39$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1565942.2%278 W · 381 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Nick Hardt58c184.5$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4973748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nick Hardt66c181.73$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.133,79854.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L+111.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeab…9cd0backed Guido Justo28c170.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7751142.7%218 W · 293 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Guido Justo37c167.46$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.961,67353%887 W · 786 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Nick Hardt75c166.01$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.961,92655.4%1,067 W · 859 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked Nick Hardt58c145$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.715754.8%86 W · 71 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3556…af4fbacked Guido Justo27c144.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1227724.9%69 W · 208 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x820b…d27abacked Guido Justo28c137.37$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4712538.4%48 W · 77 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Nick Hardt51c125$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.253,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Nick Hardt60c119.7$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4311337.2%42 W · 71 L-10.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0c2…4302backed Nick Hardt71c114.87$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.911040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d8…400bbacked Guido Justo35c112.83$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3934627.7%96 W · 250 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Guido Justo31c110.16$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.152540%10 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+181.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Guido Justo18c109.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.554,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Guido Justo41c108.2$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.122,08754.1%1,130 W · 957 L+64.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e5…01d8backed Nick Hardt71c105.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a0…9bc4backed Nick Hardt73c102.2$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5947274.4%351 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Nick Hardt57c102.03$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.031,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac6…e020backed Guido Justo48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4835360.9%215 W · 138 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Nick Hardt56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4417646%81 W · 95 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Nick Hardt73c96.31$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.711,00843.8%442 W · 566 L-2.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Guido Justo30c95.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.831031%96 W · 214 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…70b1backed Guido Justo45c91.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.454763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Nick Hardt56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.292,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc221…1ed3backed Nick Hardt54c87.71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.351643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27b6…e8babacked Nick Hardt54c87.71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.351435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Nick Hardt46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.963,45738.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L-15.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Nick Hardt46c82.61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.613,26240.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Nick Hardt66c82.18$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.181,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…200bbacked Guido Justo34c81.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.857751.9%40 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Guido Justo47c79.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.61,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf182…112bbacked Nick Hardt52c78.87$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8630649.7%152 W · 154 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Nick Hardt62c75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51,87759.4%1,115 W · 762 L+8.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe857…7b3bbacked Guido Justo27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2083823.2%194 W · 644 L-58.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xca29…a1d0backed Guido Justo31c73.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9625452%132 W · 122 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.