TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Qatar Total Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ostapenkoof Ostapenko, Cocciaretto
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,666
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,678

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,666 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b5c…126ebacked Ostapenko76c12,317$9,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,993.0680938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Cocciaretto19c11,165$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.871,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Ostapenko62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,799.9943051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Cocciaretto38c9,737$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7001241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cocciaretto28c8,000$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222.642,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Ostapenko70c7,126$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.8128444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Cocciaretto39c6,414$2,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,49072132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Cocciaretto36c3,233$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.555646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cocciaretto17c3,195$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.8165647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cocciaretto28c3,109$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.457,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Ostapenko64c2,918$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.5930241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09df…491fbacked Ostapenko64c2,800$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fb…acbabacked Ostapenko80c2,504$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.8325764.6%166 W · 91 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ostapenko74c2,465$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.422,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Cocciaretto30c2,245$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.51,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Cocciaretto13c2,232$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.6781349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Cocciaretto36c1,800$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.9943042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Cocciaretto36c1,796$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.061,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Cocciaretto38c1,789$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.5919241.1%79 W · 113 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cocciaretto36c1,670$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.981,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed Ostapenko63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.310547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Cocciaretto37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.981,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Cocciaretto37c1,356$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030847.7%147 W · 161 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed72…b8b0backed Cocciaretto38c1,180$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.317332.9%24 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Cocciaretto22c1,172$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.6449632.3%160 W · 336 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Cocciaretto26c1,164$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30041645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Ostapenko61c1,143$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.8918651.1%95 W · 91 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Cocciaretto13c1,093$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.461,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Cocciaretto25c1,083$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.543,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…3b80backed Ostapenko62c1,050$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39911843.2%51 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Cocciaretto36c1,047$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3775853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Cocciaretto28c1,032$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.3939431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Cocciaretto20c1,012$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2623429.9%70 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Ostapenko64c1,003$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.3345457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe779…335ebacked Ostapenko62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3801546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-26.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2cd…841dbacked Cocciaretto11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010122.8%23 W · 78 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Ostapenko63c994.77$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.7711353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Cocciaretto9c988.08$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8912722%28 W · 99 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Cocciaretto36c972.18$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.996439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Cocciaretto31c970.86$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30044448.9%217 W · 227 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Ostapenko75c937.11$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.671,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Cocciaretto40c875$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35026158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeb0…4cd4backed Cocciaretto7c750$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.52045%9 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Ostapenko78c747.29$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.132774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Cocciaretto27c717.25$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0424634.1%84 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Ostapenko61c696.78$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.7476140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Ostapenko68c668.53$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.9325152.6%132 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Ostapenko65c643.2$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.1231753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Cocciaretto21c640$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13266831.3%209 W · 459 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Cocciaretto37c629$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7812627.8%35 W · 91 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cde…6040backed Cocciaretto32c628.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016665.7%109 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked Ostapenko80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1254643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Ostapenko76c607.26$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.342,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f87…8a86backed Cocciaretto33c565.73$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.692944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Ostapenko73c547.95$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.9526847%126 W · 142 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc274…86debacked Cocciaretto29c526.3$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15149342.8%211 W · 282 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Cocciaretto20c524$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.831,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…a29dbacked Ostapenko64c513.34$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.82259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Ostapenko78c512.82$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.825653.6%30 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Cocciaretto22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11046553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Ostapenko64c468.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.3313652.9%72 W · 64 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ostapenko72c460.6$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.216,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Cocciaretto16c450$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f97…a9b3backed Cocciaretto22c410.91$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.426227.9%73 W · 189 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ostapenko79c404$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.691,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Ostapenko61c387.25$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.0343242.4%183 W · 249 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Ostapenko64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.521758.1%126 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Ostapenko64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bde…3800backed Ostapenko64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.54740.4%19 W · 28 L-8.6wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-37.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Cocciaretto30c303.54$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.992,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Cocciaretto20c300.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9616132.3%52 W · 109 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e80…09b8backed Ostapenko68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Ostapenko73c296.94$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.91,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Cocciaretto20c295$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2497046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Cocciaretto38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10068026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dad…a040backed Cocciaretto39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Cocciaretto37c253.78$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.947552.4%249 W · 226 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked Ostapenko77c249.32$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5f…6cecbacked Cocciaretto40c248.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027749.8%138 W · 139 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c3…3201backed Cocciaretto41c244.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018957.7%109 W · 80 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c7d…5aeebacked Cocciaretto22c236.36$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524422.7%10 W · 34 L-7.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-45.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Cocciaretto37c231.91$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.021,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Ostapenko70c225.03$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5146040%184 W · 276 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Cocciaretto38c221.98$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3522344.8%100 W · 123 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e3…40a0backed Cocciaretto28c215.85$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6411759.8%70 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed Cocciaretto26c211.79$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5521843.1%94 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b6b…b355backed Cocciaretto19c207.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404122%9 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick31cpaid+7.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a52…06cbbacked Cocciaretto36c204.39$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5817056.5%96 W · 74 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Ostapenko62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7647639.1%186 W · 290 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Ostapenko78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.57644.7%34 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a67…e0dbbacked Cocciaretto25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Ostapenko63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7426247.7%125 W · 137 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c30…b30dbacked Ostapenko61c193.08$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.33100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc5…7b98backed Ostapenko79c190.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.486269.4%43 W · 19 L+6.7wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Ostapenko62c182.84$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.549833.7%33 W · 65 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Cocciaretto39c181$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.591,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3de…3842backed Cocciaretto32c173.67$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552536%9 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Cocciaretto24c166.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4057349.6%284 W · 289 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Ostapenko61c163.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.994346.5%20 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5df4…4eacbacked Ostapenko62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.295354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.