NBA · resolved market
Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11b68ca4bdf1acafea5c9080a0411ecc9417d153cd1ec5ef824b147e52c4e595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 41c | 1,154$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.77 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 44c | 1,146$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.58 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…33f3backed Yes | 38c | 933.02$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 62c | 799.99$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 38c | 622$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.85 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 57c | 606.15$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.26 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bc94backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 61c | 452$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.28 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 51c | 422$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 58c | 318.25$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.95 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 43c | 205.75$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed No | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked No | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 219 | 37%81 W · 138 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 55c | 88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 39c | 72.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -14.1wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 58c | 68.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +28.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 49c | 41.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5this page
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Heat vs. HawksHeat won
- Heat vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 125.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.