NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x120f27d85869e680542ebf3fd691a445c72e8e09de652e1b51a3c4eff21835ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Under | 52c | 12,483$6,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,992.14 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 11,863$5,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,803.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 51c | 8,891$4,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,534.16 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 8,241$4,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,148.8 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Under | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,840 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 3,530$1,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.54 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 48c | 2,433$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 2,175$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.19 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 51c | 1,828$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.72 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 1,794$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.25 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…64c5backed Over | 50c | 1,499$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 1,165$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.07 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 1,152$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Under | 51c | 525.44$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.47 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 510.83$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.2 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 48c | 499.99$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 52c | 489.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.3 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 50c | 450$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 332.49$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 309.9$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Under | 51c | 308.96$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.39 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Under | 52c | 213$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 544 | 43%234 W · 310 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 49c | 157.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 52c | 136.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 50c | 125.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 232 | 46.1%107 W · 125 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Over | 48c | 78.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 68.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 47c | 62.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Under | 50c | 59.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Under | 50c | 56.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 47c | 52.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Under | 49c | 52.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 219 | 48.9%107 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 48.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…aea9backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Over | 50c | 33.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 49c | 28.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Over | 52c | 27.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Under | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…068ebacked Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Over | 52c | 24.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5this page
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Heat vs. HawksHeat won
- Heat vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 125.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.