NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x512bc6e264dc715c2af65565579a95374cb232eeb4e24ca79759831876ae6a0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 45c | 2,229$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Heat | 54c | 2,219$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.8 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 45c | 2,193$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.22 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 54c | 1,486$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.7 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 54c | 1,467$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Hawks | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Heat | 53c | 1,257$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.83 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks | 47c | 1,217$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.85 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Hawks | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks | 45c | 539.37$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.65 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Heat | 54c | 416.67$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.67 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Hawks | 38c | 364.5$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Heat | 55c | 364$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Hawks | 33c | 323.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Heat | 54c | 278$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.88 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Hawks | 46c | 277.61$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 52c | 275.22$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.1 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Hawks | 46c | 258.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Heat | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 184 | 56%103 W · 81 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Hawks | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Heat | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Heat | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Heat | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…5bc4backed Hawks | 36c | 167.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawks | 33c | 154.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat | 52c | 142.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Hawks | 46c | 137.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Heat | 67c | 134$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 40c | 125.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Heat | 65c | 84.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Heat | 55c | 78.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911d…2438backed Heat | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 53c | 69.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Heat | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat | 52c | 51.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Hawks | 47c | 50.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Heat | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hawks | 36c | 46.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…dc9bbacked Heat | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Heat | 63c | 32.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Heat | 55c | 32.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…1363backed Heat | 54c | 31.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Heat | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Heat | 64c | 29.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Hawks | 47c | 28.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat | 63c | 27.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Heat | 54c | 27.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 232 | 49.6%115 W · 117 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hawks | 45c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…fe8bbacked Heat | 54c | 23.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Hawks | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)this page
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Heat vs. HawksHeat won
- Heat vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 125.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.