NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6bfd7354d5f6273abbdd356d5c4bca34624c13b53b964f0e47853b5329998c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Heat | 47c | 16,596$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,795.74 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Hawks | 53c | 16,131$8,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,549.4 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Heat | 47c | 10,723$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,683.4 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Hawks | 54c | 5,500$2,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Hawks | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Hawks | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Hawks | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 54c | 1,708$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Heat | 47c | 1,670$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.1 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Heat | 45c | 1,638$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.78 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hawks | 53c | 1,620$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.8 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 45c | 1,334$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.83 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 54c | 745.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Hawks | 53c | 349.78$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.33 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Heat | 46c | 262$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.48 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Hawks | 56c | 196.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Hawks | 53c | 170$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawks | 46c | 167.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 46c | 166.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat | 45c | 150.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Hawks | 47c | 148.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Heat | 47c | 148.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Heat | 53c | 144$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Hawks | 55c | 133.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Heat | 46c | 131$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Hawks | 56c | 117.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Hawks | 54c | 92.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Hawks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 46c | 74.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Hawks | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Hawks | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Heat | 45c | 48.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Heat | 46c | 46.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Heat | 49c | 38.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…222bbacked Hawks | 54c | 34.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 182 | 50%91 W · 91 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Heat | 47c | 30.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Heat | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks | 54c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)this page
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Heat vs. HawksHeat won
- Heat vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 125.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.