NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57969f9b7f2c01a900222f6798c09f9521060de465a25f5b1cfaa69f86da2602
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Over | 56c | 1,620$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.2 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 1,230$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.66 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 54c | 1,186$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.3 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 1,080$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 930.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 6c | 765.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 744.39$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.24 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 53c | 566.5$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.56 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 560.05$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.87 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 43c | 490.06$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.34 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 47c | 473.98$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.09 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 54c | 425$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 5c | 296$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 221$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 60c | 147.83$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 93.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 45c | 87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 54c | 84.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 57c | 66.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 59.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 54.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 41c | 49.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…976bbacked Under | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc83…c024backed Over | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Over | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 44.4%79 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 34.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Over | 54c | 34.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 77c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Over | 55c | 31.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68d…e03bbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 54c | 21.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 53c | 21.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec3…9aa3backed Over | 56c | 17.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5this page
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Heat vs. HawksHeat won
- Heat vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 125.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Under won
- Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.